Every month matters in a Major League Baseball season, but for some teams, certain months take on an even greater significance. In 2024, June is one of those months for the Toronto Blue Jays — a potentially pivotal moment in the club's history.
Toronto sits at 27-30 after their 8-1 shellacking at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday. They haven't scored in the first inning of 23 straight games, a dubious franchise record. They have closed the gap on the Tampa Bay Rays to get out of last place in the AL East in the past two weeks, but that's largely because they played all six games of their season series against the worst team in baseball, the Chicago White Sox.
It sounds dramatic, but the past four years of Blue Jays baseball have been slowly building towards these next 28 games. Stay in the playoff hunt and the dream of a championship in the Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Bo Bichette era remains on life support. But if Toronto falls out of this race, general manager Ross Atkins may have no choice but to sell the farm.
2024 a disappointment for Blue Jays thus far
All things considered, there's an argument to be made that the Blue Jays are fortunate to be in the position they currently sit, just 4.5 games out of the AL Wild Card race. They've got an expected won/lost record of 25-32, their .688 team OPS ranks 18th and their 4.12 team ERA is 20th. Nothing about their resume thus far suggests they should be a playoff team, but that remains what they desperately hope to be.
Where to lay the blame? At some point in the season, every starting position player has struggled, which has a cumulative effect. Although the season numbers of some look decent, such as Daulton Varsho and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it rarely happens that multiple hitters are on hot streaks at the same time. Bo Bichette and George Springer, two of the hitters John Schneider probably hoped to hit at the top of his lineup all season, have been dreadful.
On the pitching side, Kevin Gausman got off to a rough start, while Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi have had their ups and down. Only Jose Berrios has been consistently good, with 10 quality starts in 12 outings. Alek Manoah is now injured once again, as is closer Jordan Romano, who wasn't having a typical season by his All-Star standards. This was one of the best staffs in baseball a year ago, and now it's simply mediocre.
Why Toronto needs to start winning now
Things weren't supposed to be this way. When the Blue Jays charged through the second half of the 2021 season, narrowly missing the playoffs by one game, the championship window was supposed to be wide open. That famously prompted Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s trailer/movie analogy, which has been mocked every which way for 27 calendar months. Rhe two full seasons since have failed to produce so much as a single playoff win.
Meanwhile, Guerrero and Bichette's lofty stats have made them some of the more expensive arbitration-eligible players in MLB history. That has ballooned the Blue Jays' 2024 payroll to a club record $246 million, despite not making any marquee signings since Springer. With both Guerrero and Bichette set to become free agents after 2025, it's hard to justify running back the same roster next year if these are the results they're going to get.
That means one of two things: either the Jays get back in the race and Atkins loads up at the trade deadline to make one more run with this group, or they continue to underwhelm and some form of firesale happens.
Bassitt talked about the pressure the Jays are under on a recent episode of Jomboy Media's “The Chris Rose Rotation,” fully acknowledging that they know they “have three months” to prove they're contenders, not a full season. And it's not only the players who could be sent out of town, as Schneider and Atkins are fighting to keep their jobs as well.
Blue Jays: Buyers or sellers?
Choosing whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline is a conundrum for a handful of teams every year. No one wants to admit defeat when there are 26 players in a locker room trying to win every night, but failing to recoup anything of value for players who eventually leave town is now seen as a death knell by front offices. It's what prompted the Boston Red Sox to trade Mookie Betts, and it's why the Los Angeles Angels are now in a world of pain after deciding not to trade Shohei Ohtani.
If the Jays are going to be sellers, they have a wide range of attractive pieces for buyers of all types. They have rental catcher Danny Jansen, who has an .832 OPS in 188 games since the start of 2022. Kikuchi is a rental as well, while Bassitt comes with an extra year of team control. And, of course, there's the matter of Vladdy and Bo. Deciding what to do with those two franchise cornerstones, who both are going to command more money than they deserve based on recent performance, will be a decision with decades-long ramifications for the entire franchise.
Buying, meanwhile, is a whole other dilemma, because the Jays would essentially be telling someone on the roster who was supposed to be a key contributor that they aren't good enough to keep their job. Springer and Kevin Kiermaier have struggled at the plate, but both are being paid eight figures to be starters this year. Bichette has been awful at the plate, but there's no realistic way the Jays trade for another everyday shortstop. So, sure, they could try for another starting pitcher and some bullpen help, but it's hard to imagine drastically altering the lineup the Jays already have in house.
So even if the Blue Jays decide not to sell, this is likely the team they have for the long haul. They had better get hot in June, because the decision grows closer each and every day. Either Toronto will finally go on the memorable run their fans have dreamt of for three years, or this entire era of Jays baseball will come to an unceremonious end in the middle of the summer.
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