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The 2024 season hasn't exactly gone according to plan for the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite having one of the deepest rosters in baseball, at least on paper, the Blue Jays have been very disappointing. Despite coming into Friday night having won two in a row, and against the Baltimore Orioles, no less, they are still two games below .500 on the season (30-32). And to make matters worse, they have officially lost one of their promising young pitchers, Alek Manoah, to a season-ending injury.
Only one week after the Blue Jays placed him on the 15-day Injured List due to an elbow injury, Manoah has decided to undergo surgery on his right UCL which would then keep him out for the rest of the 2024 season, according to Arden Zwelling of SportsNet.
The Blue Jays starter met with Dr. Keith Meister this past Thursday, and not too long after that, they decided that the best course of action for Alek Manoah to take to heal from his elbow injury is to undergo surgery. Meister will be the one to perform the operation, added Zwelling, but at the moment, it's unclear if Manoah will be undergoing a full Tommy John surgery or just an internal brace procedure.
Manoah, 26 years of age, pitched in only five games this season before sustaining an elbow injury. It was on May 29 when Manoah had to exit after just 1.2 innings of the Blue Jays' 3-1 win over the hapless Chicago White Sox due to elbow discomfort. Immediately after that, Manoah shared his frustrations over what has been a tumultuous past two seasons for him.
In the five games Manoah started in 2024, he tallied a 3.72 ERA in 24.1 innings, striking out 26 against only eight walks. He was much improved compared to his disastrous 2023, thanks in large part to his vastly-reduced walk rate. But now, he'll be on the mend for the foreseeable future as his star continues to dim.
Alek Manoah, from future star to a future of uncertainty
In 2022, Alek Manoah broke out as one of the Blue Jays' best starting pitchers. In only his age-24 season, Manoah started in 31 games while pitching 196.2 innings of quality baseball. He finished that campaign with a 2.24 ERA while striking out 180 batters against only 51 walks. He made the All-Star team during that year and finished third in AL Cy Young award voting, and it looked as though the Blue Jays had their ace of the future.
Alas, a disastrous start on Opening Day last year set the tone for a cataclysmic campaign for Manoah, and in seemingly the blink of an eye, the Blue Jays lost their ace. Manoah's ERA skyrocketed to 5.87.
He never looked right; his velocity dipped, with his fastball being a mile per hour slower on average from where it was in 2022, his command vanished, and he ended up being a negative contributor (-0.4 WAR, per Fangraphs) to the Blue Jays. He allowed over six walks per nine innings, the Blue Jays saw it fit to demote Manoah twice. He stayed in Triple-A for the rest of the 2023 season from August onwards, unable to return to the majors after the team shut him down after his battle against various injuries.
Manoah hasn't been much better in 2024, but he has, at least, improved upon his catastrophic 2023. Manoah even said following his early exit from the Blue Jays' win over the White Sox in late May that he has overcome a lot to be pitching much better, which makes this injury development that much more devastating.
Blue Jays' pitching outlook
Alek Manoah's long-term absence will open up one rotation spot for the Blue Jays; Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt will always be rotation fixtures barring an injury, so at the very least, Toronto has a few veteran arms to hold down the fort.
With Manoah out, the Blue Jays turned to Trevor Richards to fill the rotation vacancy. During his start on June 4 against the Orioles, Richards pitched in only two innings, even though he struck out four batters and allowed zero runs during his time on the mound. The decision to quickly pull Richards came back to bite the Blue Jays quickly, as they ended up losing that contest, 10-1, after four separate relievers allowed at least one run.
Richards was pitching on only one day of rest, which is why he had a quick leash. But given how well the veteran is pitching as of late (he currently has a 2.97 ERA on the season), it may be worth it to give him the first crack at the fifth starter role. He began his career as a starting pitcher as well, so he will not be unfamiliar at all with the heavier workload that comes with being a starter.
