The UFC 321 Main Card is finally here and we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for this upcoming tilt in the Heavyweight Division. No. 2-ranked Alexander Volkov of Russia will take on the rising No. 5 Jailton Almeida of Brazil. Check our UFC odds series for the Volkov-Almeida prediction and pick.
Alexander Volkov (38-11) has gone 12-5 during his run in the UFC since 2016. He most notably went on a four-fight winning streak and took down opposition like Sergei Pavlovich, earning him his No. 2 ranking. He dropped his last bout against Ciryl Gane, but will be determined to earn a title shot with a win here. Volkov stands 6-foot-7 with an 80-inch reach.
Jailton Almeida (22-3) has gone an impressive 8-1 since joining the UFC in 2022. After dropping his first UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes, Almeida bounced back with Round 1 finishes over Alexandr Romanov and Serghei Spivac. Now, he'll look to exact a top contender spot with a win. Almeida stands 6-foot-3 with. 79-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 Odds: Alexander Volkov-Jailton Almeida Odds
Alexander Volkov: +164
Jailton Almeida: -198
Over 1.5 rounds: -130
Under 1.5 rounds: +100
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Why Alexander Volkov Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ciryl Gane – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 24 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Alexander Volkov could have very well been fighting in the Heavyweight Main Event against Tom Aspinall if he managed to do just a bit more against Ciryl Gane during his last fight. Volkov managed to out-strike Gane 105-48 through the three rounds, but face a noticeable gap in the wrestling despite his successful submission defense. Still, it was a great performance as he could've gotten the judges' nod just as easily as he didn't.
Volkov has become very dangerous over his last few fights and it seems as though he's doing his best job yet at using size to his advantage and putting opponents on their back foot. He's a towering presence at 6-foot-7 and in throwing 4.97 significant strikes per minutes, is a fearsome striker for opponents to deal with.
If Volkov is able to stuff the takedown attempts much like Curtis Blaydes did in his win over Almeida, he should have an easier time standing and kickboxing against a much stiffer opponent. Volkov also does a great job of working from the clinch and will be very dangerous with his knees up the middle and elbows off the break.
Why Jailton Almeida Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Serghei Spivac – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 13 SUB
Jailton Almeida dominated a talented grappler like Serghei Spivac rather easily during his last bout, proving that he may have the best grappling game in all of the division. With 13 submissions under his belt, Almeida does a great job of breaking his stance and getting extremely low for the takedown. While Volkov sports a strong 72% takedown defense rate, Almeida has a history of making solid grapplers look out of place once he grabs a hold of them.
Volkov will certainly be a tough opponent to bring down, but Almeida doesn't shy away from a challenge and it'll be his clearest path to victory with how significant the grappling discrepancy is between them. Volkov has lost three previous bouts by submission, his most recent against Tom Aspinall, so expect Almeida's grappling to be a massive focal point during this fight.
If Almeida is able to force Volkov to the ground, especially in the later rounds once he's tired, this will be Almeida's fight to lose from a grappling perspective. On the feet, Almeida's power is constantly a threat and he's always looking to improve his striking, but he may want to avoid strictly standing against a strong kickboxer like Volkov.
Final Alexander Volkov-Jailton Almeida Prediction & Pick
This is a great matchup at heavyweight with a classic kickboxer and dangerous submission artist. People have been sleeping on Alexander Volkov for quite some time, but his recent track record speaks for itself and he was a small margin away from beating Ciryl Gane and earning his title shot. Almeida, on the other hand, has been able to submit most of the opponents in front of him and will have a new challenge in Volkov when these two meet.
Ultimately, I don't see a fight where Almeida isn't able to bring Volkov to the ground with his height and imbalance when wrestling. I see Almeida taking the back quickly once Volkov attempts to return to his feet, ending this fight with a likely submission win.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with Jailton Almeida as the betting favorite. However, don't be surprised if Volkov is able to combat the wrestling early on and turn this into a dog fight by the third round.
Final Alexander Volkov-Jailton Almeida Prediction & Pick: Jailton Almeida (-198); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-130)
