We're back with our final betting prediction and pick for UFC Perth as we'll finally see the Main Event bout between top contenders in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. No. 3-ranked Carlos Ulberg of New Zealand will take on former title challenger and No. 7-ranked Dominick Reyes in a can't-miss Main Event. Check our UFC odds for the Ulberg-Reyes prediction and pick.
Carlos Ulberg (12-1) has gone 8-1 inside the UFC since 2021. During his quick rise to the top, Ulberg's only loss came in his debut to Kennedy Nzechukwu. Since then, he's won eight-straight fights with five knockouts and three unanimous decisions, so expect his meteoric rise to continue here. Ulberg stands 6-foot-4 with a 77-inch reach.
Dominick Reyes (15-4) has gone 9-4 since joining the UFC in 2017, making for some of the more classic moments in this Light Heavyweight Division. He's posted three consecutive wins all by knockout and looking like the contender he was years ago as he sets his sights on the belt once again. Reyes stands 6-foot-4 with a 77-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Perth Odds: Carlos Ulberg-Dominick Reyes Odds
Carlos Ulberg: -250
Dominick Reyes: -205
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -154
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Why Carlos Ulberg Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jan Blachowicz – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Carlos Ulberg is coming into this fight following an impressive, dominant performance over a former champion in Jan Blachowicz. Typically fighting with a marauding style, Ulberg has evolved greatly with his skills and has turned into a complete mixed martial artist who can perform for all three rounds. This main event in his home country will be the final step he needs to potentially securing his shot at the belt.
Carlos Ulberg is a terrifying striker and a massive strength of his game is that opponents are timid and scared to get hit by him. He has one-touch knockout ability and the more he's been able to mix his kicking game in, the more opponents have to guess where he's aiming his strikes. He's able to throw everything with bad intentions while still remaining technical and tight with his stance.
To win this fight, Ulberg will really only need to land a few clean combinations to put Reyes away. Ulberg's game in reminiscent of a young Dominick Reyes, but Ulberg is the much more gifted athlete and has a fresher chin to work with considering all the wars Reyes has been in. If he can manage to escape trouble and time Reyes' unorthodox striking, he should be able to eventually catch his chin.
Why Dominick Reyes Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Nikita Krylov– TKO (left hand, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Dominick Reyes has now posted three consecutive knockouts inside the second round, looking like a completely new version of himself with revitalized striking and a new fervor for the sport. His power also clearly hasn't lost a step as he's been able to put away very strong opponents with seemingly effortless punches. During this fight, he'll have the perfect opportunity to prove he's still a name to watch at Light Heavyweight at 35 years old.
Dominick Reyes has a very unorthodox technique for his head movement and punching angles, which could give Ulberg trouble through the opening rounds. Ulberg tends to stand straight up at times, leaving his chin exposed to rangy strikers. Furthermore, Ulberg inches forward slowly while closing the distance, so Reyes will benefit from lateral movement and potentially tiring his opponent out throughout this fight.
In order to avoid any clean shots from Ulberg, Reyes will have to avoid having his back to the fence. While Ulberg extremely difficult to take down with an 85% defense rate, Reyes can still look to keep him guessing with occasionally level changes and work in the clinch.
Final Carlos Ulberg-Dominick Reyes Prediction & Pick
This main event is a striking fan's dream as both men will be looking to stand across from each other and land heavy blows. Carlos Ulberg has had a quick rise through this division and is seemingly ready to challenge for a title, but Reyes is ready to stop the hype and prove he's still the No. 1 contender for the belt.
Ultimately, both men are bound to land big shots throughout this fight. I believe Dominick Reyes should be a bit shorter of an underdog, but it says a lot about the rising stock of Ulberg. Ultimately, if Ulberg's able to land at the same rate as Reyes, he's bound to eventually compromise his opponent and his chin.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with Carlos Ulberg to get the win. While I expect the total rounds to go over, I still anticipate Ulberg to finish this fight by knockout in the later rounds.
Final Carlos Ulberg-Dominick Reyes Prediction & Pick: Carlos Ulberg (-250); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+120)
