The time has finally come for the UFC Vegas 111 Main Event as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. No. 14-ranked Gabriel Bonfim of Brazil will take on Jamaica's own Randy Brown in what should be an exciting headliner to cap the night of fights. Check our UFC odds series for the Bonfim-Brown prediction and pick.
Gabriel Bonfim (18-1) has gone 5-1 since joining the UFC in 2023. Since suffering his first promotional loss in 2023, Bonfim has notched three consecutive wins with a split decision over UFC legend Stephen Thompson most recently. He'll look to cash-in as the favorite in his first Main Event spot. Bonfim stands 6-foot-1 with a 72.5-inch reach.
Randy Brown (20-6) is currently 14-6 inside the UFC since 2016. He's hit a hot streak as of late, winning four of his last five fights and most recently earning a performance bonus with his knockout over Nicolas Dalby. He'll come in looking to spoil the party once again in his first main event. Brown stands 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 111 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 111 Odds: Gabriel Bonfim-Randy Brown Odds
Gabriel Bonfim: -175
Randy Brown: +145
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Gabriel Bonfim Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Stephen Thompson – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 13 SUB
Gabriel Bonfim went toe-to-toe with one of the UFC's all-time best strikers in Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in his last fight and although he fell behind 78-55 of the striking totals, he managed to secure the win in landing five of his 14 takedown attempts. Bonfim could have a similar approach in this fight against his opponent who notably has two losses by submission on his record.
Up to this point of his UFC career, Bonfim has been accurate on 55% of his takedown attempts while Randy Brown defends takedowns at a 73% rate. While Bonfim will be favoring this fight to hit the ground, he may have to deal with significant exchanges on the feet before closing the distance. His most recent win should be all the reassurance he needs in standing and trading against another talented striker.
Make no mistake, however, as Gabriel Bonfim will be looking to bring this fight to the ground early and often. His ability to transition through positions on the ground is better than most opponents can keep up with and although Brown is strong with his submission defense, Bonfim is bound to find an opening if he's able to find the back or end up in mount.
Why Randy Brown Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Nicolas Dalby – KO (right hook, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Randy Brown scored a perfect check right hook in his last fight, sitting a tough opponent like Nicolas Dalby down with one punch and securing the finish. While it was just Brown's second knockout in the last two years, he showed that he's still got a ton of pop behind his shots and is in some of the better shape of his career. Despite being billed the underdog here, Brown will have a great chance to upset in his first Main Event behind is technical striking.
Brown will be the longer striker and he does a great job of utilizing every inch of height and reach he has over his opponent. He leads with a straight jab, setting up his hooks and combinations to the body. Brown is also very active with his front teep kick and the body kicks, so expect those to be a theme early on as he tries to wear Bonfim down.
His submission defense will be a constant theme throughout this fight as Brown is bound to be defending takedown attempts. Still, getting his back against the fence and using it to get back to his feet will be paramount in his success. Brown's cardio could also hold up better through three rounds if he's able to stuff the takedowns and discourage Bonfim.
Final Gabriel Bonfim-Randy Brown Prediction & Pick
The UFC put forth another great Main Event as both fighters are looking to truly prove themselves within this division. Gabriel Bonfim comes in off the biggest win of his career while Randy Brown is looking to be in his best form in years.
The key for Bonfim in this fight will be dealing with Brown's reach and keeping the distance close throughout this fight. Brown is the much better fighter at range and can easily strike for five rounds while having the advantage.
Still, we have to favor Bonfim's ability to improve his striking with each passing fight while still holding the great equalizer with his grappling and takedown abilities. For our final prediction, we'll roll with Gabriel Bonfim to earn his first Main Event win as he call his next shot.
Final Gabriel Bonfim-Randy Brown Prediction & Pick: Gabriel Bonfim (-175); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-135)
