The UFC 323 Main Card is heating up as we're set to bring you another betting prediction and pick for this tilt in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Former champion and No. 10-ranked Henry Cejudo will welcome rising prospect Payton Talbott in a fight you won't want to miss! Check our UFC 323 odds series for the Cejudo-Talbott prediction and pick.
Henry Cejudo (16-5) has gone 10-5 during his UFC career since 2014 en route to double-champ status. Since coming in and out of retirement, Cejudo has lost his last three fights to Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili, and Song Yadong. He'll look to preserve his standing as the underdog in this one. Cejudo stands 5-foot-4 with a 64-inch reach.
Payton Talbott (10-1) has gone 4-1 inside the UFC since 2023. He suffered his first promotional loss to Raoni Barcelos, but most recently bounced back with a dominant win over Felipe Lima. This is his toughest fight to this point, but he comes in the moderate betting favorite. Talbott stands 5-foot-10 with a 70.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 Odds: Henry Cejudo-Payton Talbott Odds
Henry Cejudo: +210
Payton Talbott: -258
Over 2.5 rounds: -250
Under 2.5 rounds: +190
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Henry Cejudo Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Song Yadong – TECH DEC (eye poke)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Henry Cejudo's last appearance against Song Yadong saw a bizarre ending following an eye poke during the third round that had the fight called early and decided by the judges' scorecards. The ruling went in Song's favor, but the significant strike advantage for the winner was marginal at 84-67. Cejudo put up a great fight against one of the best young stars in the division, proving he still has a ton left in the tank at 38 years old.
Cejudo will once again bring his Olympic-level wrestling and it should serve him well in negating Talbott's offense throughout this one. Talbott is known for his flashy striking and acrobatic movement, so Cejudo can take all of that away if he's able to secure takedowns and control time on the ground. His ground-and-pound is often overlooked as a solid aspect of his game, so look for Cejudo to continually frustrate Talbott in tying him up.
Whatever Cejudo will lack in speed or athleticism he more than makes up for with his game planning and strategizing. He's always been known as one of the more cerebral minds in the sport and we're certain he's watched a significant amount of film on his opponent ahead of this fight.
Why Payton Talbott Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Felipe Lima – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Payton Talbott dropped his fight against Raoni Barcelos after taking him too lightly, so he made sure to avoid the same mistake against Felipe Lima in his most recent bout. While Talbott couldn't find the finish, he proved calm and composed against an equally dangerous opponent standing across from him. He managed to out-strike Lima 97-37 while stuffing 12 of his 15 takedown attempts.
Talbott may see a similar theme throughout this fight in having to constantly defend takedowns from Cejudo. Luckily, he's crafty enough to capitalize on the timing and land significant shots in the process, deterring Cejudo from closing the distance and pressuring. Talbott's hand speed and overall speed will be his biggest advantage during this fight, coupled with his significant height discrepancy.
Still, Talbott can't overlook Cejudo as an opponent despite the age differential as it's cost him in the past. His best chance at securing the victory will be to remain sharp with his striking and avoid and clean takedowns to end the round. If Talbott is able to consistently strike and stay on his feet, this should be his fight to lose.
Final Henry Cejudo-Payton Talbott Prediction & Pick
This is a great matchup and although Talbott has size, speed, and youth on his side, Henry Cejudo's wrestling and championship experience will offer the greatest resistance up to this point. Talbott is the rightful favorite, but this isn't anything Cejudo hasn't seen as a champion before.
If Payton Talbott can remain on his feet, he should be able to win this fight convincingly. However, I expect Henry Cejudo to take a full wrestling approach in this fight, resulting in a number of landed takedowns. The deciding factor will be whether Talbott can return to his feet quickly and initiate the striking, or if Cejudo steals minutes on the ground with short strikes while controlling.
While the former is more likely as the betting odds indicate, we're going to take a chance on Cejudo with the underdog odds, simply thanks to his experience and game planning.
Final Henry Cejudo-Payton Talbott Prediction & Pick: Henry Cejudo (+210); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-250)
