Team Italy can win Pool B and advance at the World Baseball Classic with a win, but Team Mexico is still alive in the tournament. It is now time to continue our World Baseball Classic odds series with an Italy-Mexico prediction and pick.
Italy is 3-0 so far in Pool B play. They opened up with an 8-0 victory over Brazil. It took them six innings to get their first run, but from there the offense took off. Dante Nori hit two home runs in the game, while Dominic Canvone drove in four runs in the game. In their second game of the WBC, Italy defeated Great Britain. It was for Italy as Great Britain drove in a run, and then Jazz Chisholm Jr scored on a wild pitch to put Great Britain up 2-0. Still, the Italian offense would come alive with two solo home runs in the third inning. Sam Antonacci would hit a Little League home run with the help of an error in the fifth, scoring two runs, as Italy went on to win 7-4.
On Monday night, Italy faced Team USA. Italy took the early lead in the game, getting to Nolan McLean early and often. Kyle Teel hit a solo home run in the second inning, followed by a two-run shot from Sam Antonacci. Jac Caglianone added another two-run shot in the fourth inning, and Italy added three more runs in the sixth to lead 8-0. Team USA attempted to make the comeback, but Italy defeated the United States 8-6.
Meanwhile, Mexico is 2-1 so far at the World Baseball Classic. They faced off with Great Britain on Friday. Nacho Alvarez opened up the scoring with a home run in the second inning, but Great Britain tied the game in the sixth. Jonathan Aranda gave Mexico the lead on a three-run home run in the eighth, and then Mexico added another four runs in the ninth, winning the game 8-2. They then dominated Brazil on Sunday night. After a four-run first inning and then six run fourth inning, Mexico was able to mercy rule Brazil, winning 16-0 in six innings.
They are coming off a loss to Team USA. An Aaron Judge two-run home run in the third innning followed by a three-run shot from Roman Anthony, gave the US a 5-0 lead. Jaren Duran would hit two home runs in the game, but Mexico fell 5-3.
If Italy wins the game, they win Pool B, and Team USA advances. If Mexico wins and scores five or more runs, without extra innings, then Mexico and the United States advance. A Team Mexico win and scoring fewer than four runs eliminates Team USA.
World Baseball Classic Odds provided by DraftKings.
Italy vs. Mexico Odds
Italy: +1.5 (+110)
Mexico: -1.5 (-135)
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
Italy vs. Mexico Key Injuries
Italy- Italy has been fairly healthy. Pitcher Alessandro Ercolani has been ruled out for the tournament, while Sal Frelick decided not to participate and instead focus on rehabilitation.
Mexico- Luis Urias has withdrawn from the games due to an injury. Meanwhile, Taj Bradley, Ramon Urias, and Jose Urquidy had all been previously ruled out.
Keys to Italy vs. Mexico Matchup
Italy is sending Aaron Nola to the mound after sending Michael Lorenzen to the bump against Team USA. Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies did not have his best stuff last season, making just 17 starts and dealing with injuries. He has a 5-10 record with a 6.01 ERA in 2025, but pitched just 94.1 innings. Still, he was dominant in 2023, going 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA. Still, he can have dominant stuff and is good against the long ball, which is the main form of offense for Team Mexico.
Mexico has not hit for average so far in the game. They have struck out 24 times, one of the highest rates of the teams contending for a title, while hitting just .296. Still, the team is third in the WBC in slugging and fifth in RBIs so far. Jarren Duran has been great for Mexico in the WBC. He is hitting .500 with three home runs and five RBI. Meanwhile, Jonathan Aranda has also been solid. He is hitting .364 with a home run and four RBIs.
With Taijuan Walker starting against Brazil, Javier Assad already starting against Great Britain, and Manny Barreda on the mound against Team USA, it will likely be Patrick Sandoval against Italy, although an official starter has not been named. Sandoval was 2-8 in 16 starts in 2025 for the Los Angeles Angels. He also had a 5.08 ERA. Sandoval has struggled the last two seasons keeping players off base, and with Italy being a solid-hitting team, it could be difficult for him to keep Mexico in this one.
Italy is hitting just .294 so far in the WBC, but they get on base well. They are second in WBC in OPS so far, just behind the Dominican Republic. Jac Caflianone is hitting .500 in the WBC with a home run and three RBIs. Meanwhile, Miles Mastrobuoni is getting on base, hitting .667 with an RBI. Finally, both catchers have hit well. J.J. D'Orazio is hitting .600 with a home run and an RBI, while Kyle Teel is hitting .667 with a home run and an RBI.
Italy vs. Mexico Prediction and Pick
Italy needs to keep this low scoring to advance. They can advance with a win. They showed their firepower against the United States, but overall, this is all about keeping the ball in the ballpark. Italy has not been giving up many home runs, even agaisnt some high-powered offensive teams. With Nola on the mound, they should be able to hold off Mexico for some time. Italy's whole goal is going to be to keep this tight and then get the win. Meanwhile, Mexico is going to be playing desperately. They have hit just .296 so far in the WBC, but their slugging has been great. They have eight home runs so far, but also strike out a ton. If Mexico can make contact and get the long ball, they will be fine, but that will not happen against Italy in this one.
Final Italy vs. Mexico Prediction and Pick: Italy +1.5 (+110) and Under 7.5 (-105)
