Team USA can win Pool B with a victory over Italy on Tuesday night, but Italy still has a chance to take the crown. It is now time to continue our World Baseball Classic odds series with an Italy-USA prediction and pick.
Team USA has been dominant so far in the games. They opened up with a 15-5 victory over Brazil in the tournament. It did not take them long to score in that game, as Aaron Judge hit a two-run home run in the top of the first inning. Still, Brazil kept it close, being down by just three heading into the ninth inning. Team USA scored seven runs in the ninth on the way to a ten-run victory.
On Saturday, they faced Great Britain. Nate Eaton went deep off of Tarik Skubal to give the Brits a 1-0 lead. It would be the fifth inning before Team USA got on the board. They first scored on a wild pitch, and then Kyle Schwarber hit a monster home run to make it 3-1. They would go on to win 9-1. Then, on Monday night, Paul Skenes shut down Mexico, giving up just one hit with seven strikeouts in four innings. Judge homered again as Team USA won the game 5-3.
Meanwhile, Italy is 2-0 so far in Pool B Play. They opened up with an 8-0 victory over Brazil. It took them six innings to get their first run, but from there the offense took off. Dante Nori hit two home runs in the game, while Dominic Canvone drove in four runs in the game.
In their second game of the WBC, Italy defeated Great Britain. It was a slow start as Eaton drove in a run in the first, and then Jazz Chisholm Jr scored on a wild pitch to put Great Britain up 2-0. Still, the Italian offense would come alive with two solo home runs in the third inning. Sam Antonacci would hit a Little League home run with the help of an error in the fifth, scoring two runs. Chisholm would add two more RBIs in the eighth, but it was not enough as Italy won the game 7-4.
If Team USA wins, they will clinch Pool B. If Italy wins, they can clinch Pool B with a win over Mexico in their next game. An Italian win against Team USA, followed by a loss to Mexico, would create a three-way tie for first, with just two teams advancing.
World Baseball Classic Odds provided by DraftKings.
Italy vs. USA Odds
Italy: +5.5 (-115)
USA: -5.5 (-105)
Over: 11.5 (-115)
Under: 11 (-105)
Italy vs. USA Key Injuries
Italy- Italy has been fairly healthy. Pitcher Alessandro Ercolani has been ruled out for the tournament, while Sale Frelick decided not to participate and instead focus on rehabilitation.
USA- Corbin Carroll was ruled out before the games, while Nolan McLean and Alex Bregman are both dealing with injuries. Still, McLean is expected to make the start on Tuesday night.
Keys to Italy vs. USA Matchup
Italy has yet to name a starting pitcher for this game, but there are two solid options for the squad to go with that are on its roster. The top would be Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies. Nola did not have his best stuff last season, making just 17 starts and dealing with injuries. He has a 5-10 record with a 6.01 ERA in 2025, but pitched just 94.1 innings. Still, he was dominant in 2023, going 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA. Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen is also an option. He was 7-11 with the Kansas City Royals in 2025 with a 4.64 ERA. Lorenzen has had more trouble with home runs in recent years than Nola, and considering that Mexico has relied on the longball more than Team USA, it may make sense to send out Lorenzen here and Nola against Mexico.
Meanwhile, Team USA has plenty of quality bats to counter whatever pitching option Italy chooses to go with. Kyle Schwarber has been great so far in the WBC. He is hitting .417 with a home run and two RBIs. Meanwhi,e, Aaron Judge is continuing to slug well. He is hitting .333 with two home runs and five RBIs. Still, it is not all about the home runs for Team USA. Team USA is second in the WBC with a .464 OBP. While Roman Anthony does have one longball, he is also hitting .364 with five RBIs. Further, Gunnar Henderson has been a major part of manufacturing runs. He is hitting .800 with two RBIs and scoring plenty of runs.
It will be 24-year old Nolan McLean on the mound for Team USA. He made his MLB debut in 2025, pitching for the New York Mets. He started eight games for the Mets in 2025, pitching 48 innings and going 5-1. McLean had a 2.06 ERA and was striking out over ten batters per nine innings. Further, he had one of the best ERA+ marks in the majors, sitting at 196. ERA+ has a league average of 100, with 150 being elite. McLean hopes to bring that to his first start at the WBC.
Regardless, Italy has been one of the best-hitting teams so far in the WBC. They are hitting .348 as a team, which is the best in the tournament. They are also third in OBP and second in OPS in the entire tournament. Dante Nori has led the way, hitting .714 with two home runs and three RBIs. Meanwhile, Miles Mastrobuoni has also hit .667 with an RBI in the tournament.
Italy vs. USA Prediction and Pick
These are two of the best three offensive units in the WBC. They both get on base well, can hit the longball, and manufacture runs. Italy has been competitive in pitching compared to Team USA. They have a 2.00 ERA while also having an opponent batting average of .177 and a 1.06 WHP. Meanwhile, Team USA has a 3.00 ERA with a .067 WHIP and a .168 opponent batting average. While the ERA is slightly higher for Team USA, they have also faced off against Mexico, while Italy has not. Regardless, Team USA has already sent out its top pitcher to the mound, while Italy has not. This should be a tight game, but with two explosive offensive units, expect some runs.
Final Italy vs. USA Prediction and Pick: Italy +5.5 (-115) and Over 11.5 (-115)
