We're back with another betting prediction and pick inside the NBA as we take a look at this next clash between Western Conference foes. The Houston Rockets (40-24) will take on the Denver Nuggets (39-26) in their final game of the season, Denver leading the series 2-1. Check our NBA odds series for the Rockets-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Houston Rockets are third in the Western Conference, most recently beating the Toronto Raptors 113-99 in their last game. Following a three-game winning streak, they've alternated wins and losses over their last six games for a 3-3 record, looking to even this season series against Denver.
The Denver Nuggets are sixth in the West following a 129-126 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. They've gone 6-9 over their last 15 games and have dropped a few positions due to the tight race atop the conference, hoping for another home win over the Rockets to get back on track.
NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings
Rockets vs. Nuggets Odds
Houston Rockets: +6.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets: -6.5 (-110)
Over: 230.5 (-115)
Under: 230.5 (-105)
Rockets vs. Nuggets Key Injuries
Houston: NOT YET SUBMITTED (update to come)
Denver: Cameron Johnson (back – Probable) / Jamal Murray (ankle – Probable) / Peyton Watson (hamstring – OUT)
Rockets vs. Nuggets Betting Trends
- The Denver Nuggets are 17-13 at home this season. The Houston Rockets are 18-16 on the road.
- The Nuggets have gone 30-14 as betting favorites. The Rockets are 3-4 as the underdogs.
- The Nuggets are 36-29 ATS overall, 14-16 ATS at home. The Rockets are 29-35 ATS overall, 17-17 ATS on the road.
- Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games against one another.
- The Rockets are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Denver's last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Houston's last nine games.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings between Denver and Houston.
Keys to Rockets vs. Nuggets Matchup
While the Houston Rockets have been surging over the last two weeks, the Denver Nuggets come into this fourth and final meeting of the season as the solid betting favorites to win this series at home. Nikola Jokic is averaging 32.4 PPG against the Rockets this season and although he's been met with stern resistance from Houston's Alperen Sengun, it's clear Jokic continues to be the best player on the floor during this matchup. His point guard Jamal Murray has been dealing with a nagging ankle injury over the last few weeks, but expect him to make the start regardless and still impact his team in a positive way.
Aaron Gordon has also been integral in the Nuggets' wins this season, posting 23 points and 10 rebounds in their last game despite the loss. He went a solid 50% from three and 90% from the free-throw line during that game, so expect Aaron Gordon to continue making an impact as he also slowly returns from his previous injury. Against a strong front court of Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr., his physicality in the interior will be much-needed for the Nuggets.
The Rockets should still be a threat throughout this game with their sustained scoring from Kevin Durant and tight defense along the perimeters from Amen Thompson. Alperen Sengun's main goal during this outing will be forcing Nikola Jokic into foul trouble, keeping him off the floor and allowing scorers like Reed Sheppard to grow the Rockets' lead when Jokic is off the floor. Durant has scored 20 or more points in his last eight-straight games, so expect continued efficiency out of him in scoring the ball.
Ultimately, this game should come down to offense given the lofty total set by oddsmakers, reinforced by the fact that Denver is the league's No. 1-ranked team on offense and the Rockets rank ninth. The Rockets are also eighth in total defensive rating while the Nuggets fail to crack the top-10, but we can still expect a high-scoring effort given the talent on both rosters.
Rockets vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick
This should be another fun meeting between these two sides and it's slightly surprising to see the Denver Nuggets convincing favorites ahead of this one. Nikola Jokic has had the Rockets' number all season and he should be flirting with another triple-double effort if he's able to stand tall, fight for rebounds, and find his way to the free-throw line.
However, the Rockets have been sneaky on the road this season and Reed Sheppard will be their most important player in situations where Nikola Jokic is off the floor. If he's able to break through the defense set by Christian Braun, the Rockets will certainly have a scoring edge when it comes to the depth of their bench.
While I still expect the Denver Nuggets to win this game at home, the spread seems like too may points as this game could flirt with overtime if the two sides remain consistent through all four quarters. Let's roll with the Rockets and the over in what should be one of the day's better matchups.
Final Rockets-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets +6.5 (-110); OVER 230.5 (-115)
