UFC Rio: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot continues on the prelims with a fight between Jafel Filho and Clayton Carpenter in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Filho-Carpenter prediction and pick.
Jafel Filho (16-4) enters riding a one-fight win streak after bouncing back from his unanimous decision loss to Allan Nascimento in May 2025 with impressive submission victories over Ode' Osbourne and Daniel Barez. The Brazilian submission specialist has scored eight finishes by rear naked choke and holds a 2-2 UFC record as he comes into his fight this weekend against Clayton Carpenter.
Clayton Carpenter (8-1) suffered his first career loss via unanimous decision to Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC 311 in January 2025, ending his undefeated streak after previously submitting Lucas Rocha in the second round at UFC Vegas 98 in October 2024. The 29-year-old American wrestler brings elite grappling credentials as he comes into his fight this weekend against Jafel Filho.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio odds: Jafel Filho-Clayton Carpenter odds
Jafel Filho: +102
Clayton Carpenter: -122
Over 2.5 rounds: -180
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Jafel Filho will win
- Last Fight: (L) Allan Nascimento – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 15 (5 KO/TKO/10 SUB)
Filho's submission prowess at the UFC level gives him a clear path to victory against Carpenter's wrestling-heavy approach. With eight career rear naked choke finishes, Filho has consistently shown the ability to capitalize on positional scrambles and turn defensive situations into offensive opportunities.
Carpenter's aggressive takedown style often leaves him exposed to guillotine chokes and back-takes during entries, which plays directly into Filho's wheelhouse. The Brazilian's defensive grappling has improved significantly since his early UFC struggles, allowing him to survive early pressure and counter with his own submission threats.
Filho's cardio advantage becomes crucial in later rounds, where his submission rate typically increases as opponents fatigue. Carpenter showed signs of slowing in his loss to Ulanbekov, suggesting he may struggle to maintain his wrestling pace against a durable veteran like Filho.
The home crowd factor in Rio cannot be understated, as Filho feeds off Brazilian energy and has historically performed better in front of supportive audiences. If Carpenter becomes overly aggressive trying to secure takedowns, Filho's opportunistic submission game should find openings to secure a finish and hand the American his second consecutive loss at UFC Rio on Saturday.
Why Clayton Carpenter will win
- Last Fight: (L) Tagir Ulanbekov – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Carpenter's wrestling credentials and takedown accuracy give him a clear advantage over Filho's defensive grappling, particularly in the early rounds where his athleticism peaks. His ability to secure dominant positions and control opponents on the mat was evident in his submission win over Lucas Rocha, showing he can finish fights when opportunities arise.
Filho's recent struggles with top-level grapplers like Allan Nascimento expose weaknesses in his takedown defense that Carpenter can exploit. While Filho is dangerous off his back, Carpenter's positional awareness and heavy top pressure limit scrambling opportunities and submission attempts.
Carpenter's youth and physical advantages become more pronounced as the fight progresses, especially if he can drain Filho's energy with sustained grappling exchanges. The American's ability to mix up his attacks between ground-and-pound and submission attempts keeps Filho guessing and prevents him from settling into defensive positions.
Despite fighting in hostile territory, Carpenter's experience against quality opposition and his methodical approach should help him weather early storms and impose his game plan. If he can avoid Filho's submission traps and maintain top control, Carpenter is positioned to secure a decision victory and bounce back from his recent setback at UFC Rio on Saturday.
Final Jafel Filho-Clayton Carpenter prediction & pick
This matchup features contrasting strengths, with Filho’s elite submission game testing Carpenter’s wrestling and top control. The early rounds will see Carpenter using his athleticism and takedown entries to score points and keep Filho on the defensive, but Filho’s dangerous guard and slick back-takes remain a constant threat.
As the fight progresses, Carpenter’s volume striking and positional awareness give him an edge in prolonged grappling sequences, where he can mix short ground-and-pound with transitions to keep Filho guessing. Filho will threaten with multiple submission attempts, yet Carpenter’s improved submission defense and scramble awareness may help him survive high-pressure moments.
Should the fight reach the later rounds, Carpenter’s cardio and pace are likely to make the difference, especially if he can pile up control time without putting himself in danger. While Filho remains live for a submission at any moment, Carpenter’s consistent work rate, control, and resilience suggest he edges out a competitive decision win at UFC Rio on Saturday.
Final Jafel Filho-Clayton Carpenter Prediction & Pick: Clayton Carpenter (-122), Over 2.5 Rounds (-180)
