Three months after competing in one of the strangest fights of the year, Paul Craig (17-9-1, one no-contest) returns at UFC Paris against Modestas Bukauskas (18-6) on Saturday. It is time to continue our UFC Paris odds series with a Modestas Bukauskas-Paul Craig prediction and pick.
Bukausas, 31, is riding a three-fight win streak and is now 4-1 since re-signing with the UFC in 2023. Bukauskas is coming off a split-decision nod over Ion Cutelaba at UFC 315 that bumped his overall record up to 18-6.
Craig, 37, returned to the light heavyweight division in his last fight but did not achieve the desired result. An awkward ending caused his fight with Rodolfo Bellato to end in a no-contest, giving Craig just one win in his last seven fights. Craig's last victory came against Andre Muniz in July 2023 with his last win at 205 pounds coming against Nikita Krylov in March 2022.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris odds: Modestas Bukauskas-Paul Craig odds
Modestas Bukauskas: -355
Paul Craig: +280
Over 1.5 rounds: -154
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
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Why Modestas Bukauskas will win
Craig's game has mostly been figured out by this point. As long as you stay out of his closed guard, his striking is extremely limited, and his wrestling is almost nonexistent. Craig was able to pick up his last win over Andre Muniz with his striking, but Bukauskas is a much more technical kickboxer who will not suffer that same fate.
Since rejoining the UFC in 2023, Bukauskas has looked like a completely different fighter with a much more well-rounded skill set. Three of his five victories came as a sizeable betting underdog, and he has shown the ability to both out-strike and out-grapple opponents. Bukauskas' best attribute is arguably his fight IQ, which he will need to rely on against an unorthodox veteran like Craig.
The game plan is simple for Bukauskas, who just needs to stay on his feet to win the fight and not engage in any grappling. He boasts a 77 percent takedown defense throughout his 10-fight UFC career and has not been taken down in nearly two years. As long as he does not get wild and jump into Craig's guard, he should cruise.
Why Paul Craig will win
Craig might be a one-dimensional fighter, but he is elite at what he does. The ground rules of MMA almost do not apply to him, as Craig loves fighting off his back, where he has secured six of his nine UFC victories. Even when he gets knocked down, Craig always seems to hold the advantage whenever his back is on the canvas.
Bukauskas has looked much improved in his second UFC run, but he still has a habit of engaging in wild brawls. His striking is crisp and clean at range, but he tends to throw caution to the wind when he closes the distance, which often gets him into trouble. If he does that against Craig, ‘Bearjew' is an expert at dragging the fight to the ground in any way imaginable.
In a clean and traditional fight, Bukauskas beats Craig any day of the week. That just never happens in a Paul Craig fight. The Scottish native always turns his bouts into abnormal skirmishes, where he appears to be better at creating something out of nothing than anyone. On paper, Craig should have been dominated by Magomed Ankalaev and Jamahal Hill, but he finished both of them.
Final Modestas Bukauskas-Paul Craig prediction & pick
Anything can happen in a fight that involves Paul Craig, which makes them difficult to predict. However, as volatile as Craig can be, Bukauskas is one of the best in the light heavyweight division at crafting specific game plans for each opponent and executing them wisely.
The numbers might not suggest it, but Bukauskas is the much better striker. His punches always come straight down the pipe with his center of gravity giving them a power boost. The outcome will depend on whether Craig can get Bukauskas down or not, which the latter should be able to avoid. Although he has not faced many wrestlers, Bukauskas displays good takedown defense fundamentals and should have the wherewithal to avoid the clinch.
Although he likes to mix in takedowns, Bukauskas has to be highly aware of the dangers Craig presents on the ground and avoid them at all costs. Even if he finds himself in Craig's guard, Bukauskas has only been submitted once — his second professional fight in 2016.
Craig tends to lose most of his fights by knockout, but Bukauskas does not have one-punch power, which could make this fight a weird 15-minute decision that goes to the Lithuanian.
Final Modestas Bukauskas-Paul Craig Prediction & Pick: Modestas Bukauskas (-355); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-154)
