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The Wisconsin Badgers (19-14) face the Oregon Ducks (21-14) in the NIT quarterfinals. Action tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NIT odds series with a Wisconsin-Oregon prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Wisconsin took down Bradley and Liberty in the first two rounds of the tournament. The Badgers covered 45% of their games while 52% went over the projected point total. Oregon handled UC Irvine and Central Florida in the first two rounds. The Ducks covered 50% of their games while 51% went over. This will be the fourth-ever meeting between the power conference foes. Wisconsin holds a 2-1 advantage thus far although Oregon won the most recent matchup back in 2019.
Here are the Wisconsin-Oregon NIT odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NIT Odds: Wisconsin-Oregon Odds
Wisconsin: +2.5 (-102)
Oregon: -2.5 (-120)
Over: 131.5 (-115)
Under: 131.5 (-105)
How To Watch Wisconsin vs. Oregon
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Wisconsin Could Cover The Spread
Wisconsin is a defensive-minded team who loves to slow things down and dictate the pace. The Badgers rank 342 of 363 teams in KenPom's tempo rating as they play an agonizingly-slow brand of basketball. With that pace, however, the Badgers are among the stoutest teams in the country. Wisconsin ranks 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing the 28th-fewest points per game in Division-1. They are especially strong against the three, allowing the 50th-fewest threes per game while holding opponents to just 32% from beyond the arc. Offensively, Wisconsin can struggle at times but they can dominate the paint, averaging 28.9 points in the paint per game. The Badgers have played a gauntlet of a schedule thus far, hiding the 16th-ranked strength of schedule.
The Badgers are led by a pair of forwards and guards that form the core of their team. Big men Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl comprise a fearsome frontcourt that is the strength of the team. Crowl leads Wisconsin with 12.3 PPG, while Wahl chips in 11.5 PPG himself. Crowl has been a man on a mission in the NIT, scoring 50 points and pulling down 11 rebounds in their first two wins. That includes a monster 36-point effort in their first-round win over Bradley but he has managed to shoot 75% in both tournament games. Wahl was quiet in their Bradley win but rebounded against Liberty, scoring 16 points on 83% shooting.
The X-factors for the Badgers tonight are their guards. Sophomore Chucky Hepburn and freshman Connor Essegian form a strong backcourt for Wisconsin as both highly-touted recruits have flashed their sky-high potential this season. Hepburn ranks second on the team in scoring with 12.2 PPG. While he has been inefficient at times this season, Hepburn's ability to get hot at a moment's notice could be critical in their chances of covering tonight. As for Essegian, his pure three-point jumper may be a major factor tonight considering Oregon ranks outside the top 150 in three-point defense.
Why Oregon Could Cover The Spread
Oregon is a well-rounded team who was is the best NIT team left in the field according to KenPom. Slotting in at 38th overall, the Ducks have more talent than a number of teams that made the NCAA Tournament. Oregon is slightly better on offense, ranking 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency while averaging 71 PPG. That being said, the Ducks remain a strong defense team as well, sliding in at No. 53 in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing just 66.4 PPG. While the Ducks don't play at a blazing pace, they are certainly faster than their opponents tonight. Additionally, Oregon played the 28th-ranked strength of schedule – preparing them well for Wisconsin.
Oregon is a much different team than they were in the regular season as both of their leading scorers are not playing in the NIT. That being said, they have a number of capable who have risen to the occasion. Sophomore big man Nate Bittle played just 18 minutes per game during the regular season but has exploded in an enhanced role this postseason. He's dropped 17 and 21 points in the first two games, racking up 16 rebounds in the process. A capable shooter from deep, the seven-footer's ability to stretch the floor could be huge given Wisconsin's size. Senior guard Rivaldo Soares, too, has taken a step up this postseason and his all-around production is a major X-factor tonight.
Final Wisconsin-Oregon Prediction & Pick
These are arguably the two best teams left in the NIT as both power-five programs had a worthy case to make the NCAA Tournament. Given Wisconsin's affinity for mucking things up and forcing low-scoring games, I'll take the underdog Badgers to cover and hope that their rent offensive outputs can continue against better competition.
Final Wisconsin-Oregon Prediction & Pick: Wisconsin Badgers +2.5 (-102)
