A spot in the World Baseball Classic Championship game is on the line as Team USA faces off with the Dominican Republic. It is now time to continue our World Baseball Classic odds series with a USA-Dominican Republic prediction and pick.
It was a 3-1 finish in Pool B play for Team USA. This placed them in second place in Pool B, sitting just behind Italy, whom they lost to in pool play. It also gave them a semi-final matchup against Canada. Team USA started strong against the Canadians. Kyle Schwarber grounded out, but drove in Bobby Witt Jr. In the third inning, Alex Bregman reached on an infield single, driving in Bryce Harper, while Aaron Judge scored on a throwing error. In the sixth, Brice Turang and Pete Crow-Armstrong both drove in runs to make it a 5-0 lead.
Logan Webb went 4.2 innings in the game, not giving up a run, but Canada would get to Brad Keller in relief. Tyler Black hit an RBI single in the bottom of the sixth, and then Bo Naylor hit a two-run home run to make it a two-run game. Gabe Speier, David Bednar, Garrett Whitlock, and Mason Millr pitched the last 3.1 innings, giving up just three hits without a run in the 5-3 victory.
Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic went 4-0 in pool play and won Group D. This gave them a date with South Korea in the quarterfinals. Junior Caminero opened the scoring in the bottom of the second inning. He hit a double, driving in Vladimir Guerrero Jr to make it 1-0. Julio Rodríguez then drove in a run, as did Fernando Tatis Jr, making it 3-0 in the second inning.
The scoring continued in the third, with Guerrero driving in a run on a double, before Manny Machado, Tatis, and Ketel Marte all drove in runs, making it 7-0. Meanwhile, pitching was dominant. Christopher Sanchez went five innings, giving up just two hits and a walk while striking out eight. Then, Albert Abreu went two more innings, striking out three without giving up a hit or a walk. In the bottom of the seventh, Austin Wells came to the plate with two men on. He hit a three-run home run, leading to the 10-0 mercy rule win.
The winner of this game will face the winner of Italy and Venezuela in the WBC Championship game.
World Baseball Classic Odds provided by DraftKings.
USA vs. Dominican Republic Odds
USA: -1.5 (+110)
Dominican Republic: +1.5 (-140)
Over: 9 (-120)
Under: 9 (+100)
USA vs. Dominican Republic Key Injuries
USA- There have been multiple changes to the Team USA roster, with Michael Wacha, Ryan Yarbrough, Tarik Skub, and Matthew Boyd all leaving the team. Joe Ryan is also not expected to pitch after joining the roster.
Dominican Republic- Geralado Perdomo previously missed time due to illness, but is back with the team.
Keys to USA vs. Dominican Republic Matchup
Team USA has not been the best pitching staff so far in the WBC, but it has been solid. They have a 3.40 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP. Still, they are likely going to start the game strong. It will be Paul Skenes on the mound for Team USA. He was great in his first start at the WBC, going four innings and giving up just one hit. Meanwhile, he walked just one batter while striking out seven. If he can be economical with his pitches, he could go five innings in this game, putting Team USA in a great spot.
The USA pitching staff will face the best offensive unit in the WBC. The Dominican leads the tournament in RBIs, batting average, and OPS. Valdimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .500 with a .529 OBP. Vlad also has two home runs and eight RBIs. Meanwhile, Fernando Tatis Jr. is also raking. He is hitting .438 with a .591 on-base percentage, while having two home runs and 11 RBIs. Juan Soto has also been solid. He's hitting just .316, but has a .458 on-base percentage with two home runs, four RBIs, and five runs scored. Finally, Manny Machado has hit .313m but with a .522 OBP. He has just one RBI, but has scored six times as well.
Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic has a full bullpen ready to go after only using two pitchers in the semifinals. Luis Severino is going to be on the mound for the Dominican Republic to begin the game. Severino was solid in his first start, but not great. He went four innings, giving up three hits and a home run. The home run was a solo home run, and he also struck out five batters. Regardless, with a fully rested bullpen, the team has multiple options if Severino struggles early.
Team USA has been solidly hitting so far. They have hit .283 in the WBC, which is fourth in the WBC. They also have 36 RBIs, which is tied for third in the tournament. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been great, hitting .357 with a .438 OBP. He also has two home runs, six RBIs, and four runs scored. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has hit .263, but with a .440 OBP. He has two home runs, and well, with five RBIs and five runs scored. Kyle Schwarber has also been solid at the plate. He is hitting .350 with a .458 OBP and six runs scored.
USA vs. Dominican Republic Prediction and Pick
Team USA is the favorite coming into this game. They have the better starting pitcher going to the mound with Skenes, but the bullpen for the Dominican Republic has been amazing. The DR has the best team ERA in the WBC already, and has given up the fewest home runs. Meanwhile, the USA pitching staff has given up ten home runs in five games. They struggled with that against Italy, and it could be an issue here. The Dominican Republic leads the WBC in home runs, hitting 14 of them in just five games. The power of the Dominicans is going to keep them in it. Expect this to get higher scoring later in the game, but the Dominican to cover, if not win.
Final USA vs. Dominican Republic Prediction and Pick: Dominican Republic +1.5 (-140) and Over 9 (-120)
