The UFC is back at O2 Arena in London for another Fight Night card as we open the action in the Women's Bantamweight (135) Division. Coventry, England's Melissa Mullins takes on Luana Carolina of Brazil in an evenly-matched opener to the card. Check our UFC odds series for the Mullins-Carolina prediction and pick.
Melissa Mullins (7-2) has gone 2-2 inside the UFC since debuting in 2023. She's alternated wins and losses while fighting on a number of London cards in the past, so she should be comfortable in this spot as the short underdog in front of her home fans. Mullins stands 5-foot-7 with a 68-inch reach.
Luana Carolina (11-5) has gone 6-4 since joining the UFC roster in 2019. She rode a three-fight winning streak before dropping her most recent bout to Michelle Montague. Carolina comes in the slight betting favorite expected to win via decision. She stands 5-foot-6 with a 69-inch reach.
UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Melissa Mullins-Luana Carolina Odds
Melissa Mullins: +110
Luana Carolina: -130
Over 2.5 rounds: -298
Under 2.5 rounds: +220
Why Melissa Mullins Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Darya Zheleznyakova– U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO
Typically a very sound kickboxer, Melissa Mullins was slightly outpaced in the striking numbers 103-77 during his last loss against Darya Zheleznyakova. Mullins managed to land three of six takedowns in trying to change levels and attack submissions, but couldn't mount or establish any meaningful offense from there. She's been up and down through these first four fights of her tenure, but a familiar spot at the O2 Arena could be what she needs to get back on track.
Mullins is landing 3.71 significant strikes per minute at a very solid 50% accuracy. The damage she sustained in her last fight certainly skews her defensive statistics, but Mullins is typically very good in absorbing damage and not letting it affect her offensive output. Expect her to continue moving forward throughout this fight and pressuring with the clinch while throwing short shots inside.
Mullins is certainly capable of knocking opponents out with a barrage of strikes from the ground and she's been recently competing in a number of grappling exhibitions outside the UFC. It'll be interesting to see what new wrinkles she's added to her game and whether we'll see a more eager version of her willing to utilize more of her ground-and-pound through the improved grappling.
Why Luana Carolina Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Michelle Montague – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Luana Carolina was on a serious hot streak through three fights, notching two unanimous decisions and a dominant TKO during the run. Her most recent bout told a different story as she was out-struck 99-75 and taken down five times during the three-round decision loss. While her opponent had everything working that night, Carolina looked unlike her previous self and a step slower than Montague all night. This bounce back fight should be a gut check for her as she hopes to build upon the loss and improve her game, still considered the favorite in this fight.
Since entering the UFC, Luana Carolina has done a great deal to evolve and grow her game since her 2018 Contender Series appearance. Known for her striking and consistent jab, she has experience against the likes of Ariane Lipski, Molly McCann, and Joanne Wood while seeing a number of different fighting styles in this division. Carolina should have a solid game plan against a steady striker like Mullins, so expect a methodical approach as she slowly tries to exploit the gaps in her opponents' game.
Luana Carolina should make use of her front leg kicks as Mullins has been known to leave herself open when closing the distance. Mullins' defense and arm guard has also been compromised in the past, so expect Carolina to go to the body on a number of occasions in hopes of getting Mullins to drop her hands.
Final Melissa Mullins-Luana Carolina Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting bout to open the card as both fighters are willing to stand in the center of the octagon and exchanging boxing combinations. Luana Carolina will be much more willing to utilize her kicks in the stand-up, while Mullins' recent improvements in the grappling could see her initiating the clinch much more fruitfully during this fight.
Luana Carolina will have to get ahead in the striking totals early if she wants success in a three-round fight. Mullins is very consistent with her own striking, but will struggle if she has to fight from behind or need a late stoppage win.
Still, I think Melissa Mullins will open this bout very fast and have the bigger moments throughout. This could end up being a split decision verdict, but we'll side with the hometown fighter as the slight underdog.
Final Melissa Mullins-Luana Carolina Prediction & Pick: Melissa Mullins (+110); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-298)
