It is the World Baseball Classic Championship as Venezuela faces Team USA. It is now time to continue our World Baseball Classic odds series with a Venezuela-USA prediction and pick.
For Venezuela, it was a 3-1 finish in Pool D play, finishing second in the pool, just behind the Dominican Republic. They opened the quarterfinals against Japan, coming in as underdogs. Ronald Acuña Jr hit a solo home run to open the scoring in the first inning. Still, Shohei Ohtani hit a home run to tie the game in the bottom of the inning. Venezuela took the lead again in the second, but Japan took the lead back in the bottom of the third, leading 5-2. Maikel Garcia hit a home run in the fifth, and then a three-run shot from Wilyer Abreu gave Venezuela the lead in the sixth. They would add a run in the eighth and win the game 8-5.
This led to a showdown with Italy in the Semifinals. Italy took the lead in the second inning on a bases-loaded walk, and then added a run on a fielder's choice. Italian manager Francisco Cervelli made the move to start Aaron Nola instead of Michael Lorenzen, and it paid off for the most part. Nola went four innings, but did give up a solo home run to Eugenio Suarez. Then, Lorenzen came into the game. He would give up three runs in the seventh inning, including an RBI from Garcia, losing the lead and ultimately the game, as Venezuela moved to the final.
Meanwhile, it was a 3-1 finish in Pool B play for Team USA. This placed them in second place in Pool B, sitting just behind Italy. It also gave them a semi-final matchup against Canada. Team USA started strong against the Canadians. Kyle Schwarber grounded out, but drove in Bobby Witt Jr. In the third inning, Alex Bregman reached on an infield single, driving in Bryce Harper, while Aaron Judge scored on a throwing error. In the sixth, Brice Turang and Pete Crow-Armstrong both drove in runs to make it a 5-0 lead.
Logan Webb went 4.2 innings in the game, not giving up a run, but Canada would get to Brad Keller in relief. Tyler Black hit an RBI single in the bottom of the sixth, and then Bo Naylor hit a two-run home run to make it a two-run game. Gabe Speier, David Bednar, Garrett Whitlock, and Mason Miller pitched the last 3.1 innings, giving up just three hits without a run in the 5-3 victory.
Team USA then faced the Dominican Republic in a pitching duel in the semifinal. Junior Caminero hit a solo home run in the first inning off of Paul Skenes, giving the DR the lead. Gunner Henderson and Roman Anthony both hit solo home runs in the second inning to give Team USA a lead. Skenes went 4.1 innings, giving up just the one run. Meanwhile, Tyler Rogers, Griffin Jax, David Bednar, Garrett Whitlock, and Mason Miller pitched the last 4.2 innings, giving up just two hits and a walk, as Team USA took the 2-1 victory.
Team USA is looking for its second title, winning it all in 2017, while finishing as the runner-up in 2023. Meanwhile, Venezuela has never appeared in the finals.
World Baseball Classic Odds provided by DraftKings.
Venezuela vs. USA Odds
Venezuela: +1.5 (+105)
USA: -1.5 (-120)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
Venezuela vs. USA Key Injuries
Venezuela- Jackson Chourio and Andres Giminez both have been hit by pitches, but have since returned to play. The same is the case with Salvador Perez.
USA- There have been multiple changes to the Team USA roster, with Michael Wacha, Ryan Yarbrough, Tarik Skub, and Matthew Boyd all leaving the team. Joe Ryan is also not expected to pitch after joining the roster.
Keys to Venezuela vs. USA Matchup
It is going to be Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound for Venezuela. He struggled when he hit the mound last, facing the Dominican Republic. He pitched just 2.2 innings, giving up three hits, a walk, and two home runs. This would lead to three runs and Venezuela taking the loss. Overall, the Venezuela pitching staff has not been great. They have a 3.00 ERA, which is tied for sixth in the game. They also have a 1.09 WHIP.
Team USA has been solidly hitting so far. They have hit .272 in the WBC, which is third in the WBC. They also have 38 RBIs, which is tied for second in the tournament. Gunner Henderson came up huge in the last game and has been solid when he has gotten time so far. He has played in three games, hitting .429 with two home runs and four RBIs. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has hit .261, but with a .414 OBP. He has two home runs, and well, with five RBIs and five runs scored. Kyle Schwarber has also been solid at the plate. He is hitting .364 with a .500 OBP and six runs scored and three RBIs.
Team USA has not been the best pitching staff so far in the WBC, but it has been solid. They have a 2.00 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP. They are going to be sending Nolan McLean to the mound. In his only start so far in the WBC, he gave up two hits, hit a batter, two walks, and a home run. This led to three runs scoring, and McLean taking the loss to Italy.
Meanwhile, Venezuela has hit well so far. They are hitting .271 with a .804 OPS. Further, they have hit nine home runs and have 36 RBIs. Luis Arraez has been great so far, hitting .348 with a .385 OBP. He has two home runs, ten RBIs, and scored six times. Meanwhile, Ronald Acuna Jr. has also been a stud. He is hitting just .261, but has a .414 OBP with two home runs, four RBIs, and ten runs scored. Finally, Maikel Garcia is hitting .435 with a .458 on-base percentage. He has a home run, six RBIs, and has scored five times.
Venezuela vs. USA Prediction and Pick
Team USA is the favorite coming into this game. Both pitchers hitting the mound in this game struggled in their lone starts, and both teams lost the last time their respective pitchers took the mound. The two teams have identical team ERAs, but the United States gives up fewer hits and fewer baserunners overall. The biggest concern for the United States pitching staff is the longball. They have given up 11 home runs so far in six games. Venezuela has the players to make them pay. Still, the depth of the lineup for Venezuela is not the same as that of Team USA. Meanwhile, Team USA shut down a stronger lineup in the Dominican Republic, and will do it again in this one.
Final Venezuela vs. USA Prediction and Pick: USA -1.5 (-120) and Under 8.5 (-105)
