UFC London: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy continues on the prelims with a fight between Shem Rock and Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rock-Al-Selwady prediction and pick.
Shem Rock (12-2-1) looks to bounce back after a tough decision loss to Nurullo Aliev in his November UFC debut. Previously, the submission ace outpointed Attila Korkmaz to conclude a stellar Oktagon tenure. Rock’s elite grappling will be key as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady.
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-4) looks to rebound following a third-round KO loss to Loik Radzhabov in his promotional debut. Before that, he secured a dominant decision over George Hardwick on DWCS to earn his contract. The Fortis MMA product needs a win as he comes into his fight this weekend against Shem Rock.
UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Shem Rock-Daniel Cormier Odds
Shem Rock: +105
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady: -125
Over 2.5 rounds: -166
Under 2.5 rounds: +130
Why Shem Rock Will Win
Shem Rock enters this lightweight clash with a significant three-inch height advantage and a crucial four-inch reach edge. These physical dimensions allow him to control the range and prevent Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady from establishing his preferred boxing rhythm.
With nine of his twelve professional wins coming via submission, Rock possesses an elite ground game that poses a constant threat. If the fight hits the mat, Al-Selwady’s historically low takedown defense could lead him directly into a fight-ending choke or limb entanglement.
Rock’s southpaw stance also presents a difficult puzzle, as his heavy body kicks are designed to sap an opponent's cardiovascular endurance. By targeting the midsection early, he can effectively lower Al-Selwady’s guard and set up a signature “club and sub” finish.
While Al-Selwady is a powerful striker, he is returning from a devastating knockout loss that may have compromised his defensive confidence. Rock’s durability was proven in his gritty performance against Nurullo Aliev, suggesting he can weather any early storms to find his own opening.
The local support at London's O2 Arena will further elevate Rock’s intensity, pushing him to maintain a relentless pace throughout the contest. Expect Rock to utilize his length and superior grappling IQ to secure a dominant victory as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady.
Why Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Will Win
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady possesses a relentless striking pace, averaging 4.14 significant strikes per minute compared to Rock’s much lower offensive output. His Muay Thai foundation allows him to chop down taller opponents with devastating low kicks and highly technical combinations.
Shem Rock has shown a dangerous tendency to keep his lead hand low, a defensive liability that was heavily exploited in his last outing. Al-Selwady’s superior hand speed and crisp boxing are perfectly suited to capitalize on these specific openings throughout the striking exchanges.
Furthermore, Rock is often cited for having a cardio ceiling, with his explosiveness and efficiency dropping significantly after the first round. Al-Selwady trains at Fortis MMA, a camp known for producing high-volume grinders who can maintain a blistering pace for fifteen minutes.
While Rock is undoubtedly a dangerous submission specialist, Al-Selwady’s active wrestling and takedown average of 2.32 per fight show he can dictate the location. He has the physical strength and defensive wrestling to deny Rock's entries and force a stand-up battle where he thrives.
Al-Selwady’s veteran experience against tough competition like George Hardwick has prepared him for the varied threats that a fighter like Rock presents. His relentless forward pressure and technical striking will likely be the deciding factors as he comes into his fight this weekend against Shem Rock.
Final Shem Rock-Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Prediction & Pick
The lightweight clash between Shem Rock and Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady at UFC London presents a fascinating stylistic puzzle between a submission specialist and a high-volume grinder. Both fighters are looking to rebound from debut losses, making the stakes incredibly high as they fight to secure their first Octagon victory.
Shem Rock holds a significant physical advantage, boasting a three-inch height lead and a four-inch reach edge over his opponent. He will likely look to use this length to keep Al-Selwady at bay with a southpaw jab and heavy body kicks.
However, Al-Selwady is known for his relentless forward pressure and a striking output that nearly doubles Rock’s average volume. If he can bridge the gap and turn this into a pocket-boxing affair, his superior hand speed could create serious defensive problems for the Liverpudlian.
The grappling exchanges will likely determine the winner, given Al-Selwady’s historically low 20% takedown defense. Rock is a dangerous submission hunter with nine career wins by tap-out, and he only needs one mistake on the mat to end the night.
While Al-Selwady has the wrestling pedigree to initiate his own takedowns, doing so puts him directly into the “python trap” of Rock’s elite guard. The hometown crowd at the O2 Arena should provide an extra boost for Rock to survive the early flurries.
Expect a competitive first round followed by Rock finding a transition to the back as Al-Selwady tires from the clinch work. The final prediction is a second-round rear-naked choke victory for Rock as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady.
Final Shem Rock-Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Prediction & Pick: Shem Rock (+105), Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
