We're back once again with a betting prediction and pick for NBA Monday as we head to the Western Conference. The Houston Rockets (16-6) will visit the Denver Nuggets (18-6) for their second meeting of the season, Denver leading 1-0. Check our NBA odds series for the Rockets-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Houston Rockets are third in the Western Conference, most recently beating the Los Angeles Clippers 115-113. They've gone a positive 7-3 over their last 10 games and with the race for the West tightening up, they'll look to catch up on the Denver Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets are second in the West following their most recent 136-105 blowout over the Sacramento Kings. It marked their fourth consecutive win, all coming on the road as they prepare to return home for another four-game stand as the betting favorites in this one.
NBA Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Rockets vs. Nuggets Odds
Houston Rockets: +1.5 (-118)
Denver Nuggets: -1.5 (-102)
Over: 237.5 (-110)
Under: 237.5 (-110)
Rockets vs. Nuggets Key Injuries
Houston: Tari Eason, Questionable (oblique) / Dorian Finney-Smith, OUT (ankle) / Fred Van Vleet, OUT (knee)
Denver: Julian Strawther, Questionable (back) / Christian Braun, OUT (ankle) / Aaron Gordon, OUT (hamstring)
Rockets vs. Nuggets Betting Trends
- The Denver Nuggets are 6-4 at home. The Houston Rockets are 8-4 on the road.
- The Nuggets are 14-10 ATS overall, 5-5 ATS at home. The Rockets are 14-8 ATS overall, 9-3 ATS on the road.
- The Nuggets are 17-5 as betting favorites. The Rockets are 1-1 as underdogs.
- The O/U is 16-8 for the Denver Nuggets, 13-9 for the Houston Rockets.
- The Rockets are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of Denver's last nine games.
- The Nuggets are 3-0 outright, 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings against the Rockets.
Keys to Rockets vs. Nuggets Matchup
The Denver Nuggets got the better of the Houston Rockets during their first meeting 112-109 behind a 30p-10r-9a night from Nikola Jokic. The Rockets' Reed Sheppard led the way with 27 points as Kevin Durant saw an off 5-15 shooting night from the field. This Denver defense has been known to stifle talented scorers throughout this season and their depth behind Nikola Jokic has them poised for another championship-caliber run in 2026.
The Rockets are right there alongside the Nuggets in the standings as their team has seen massive improvements with the addition of Kevin Durant to their already talented lineup. PG Amen Thompson has seen a big leap in his third year, averaging a career best in points (17.5) and assists (5.2). Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. have also made significant improvements as they boast one of the youngest and most versatile rosters in the league.
All of this has translated to stern improvements on the defensive end as the Rockets rank second in overall defensive rating, trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder. Containing Nikola Jokic is a tall task for any team, but the Rockets can turn this game in their favor if they can manage to keep the rest of the starters and bench in check. Christian Braun is a key injury for the Nuggets as he contributes a great deal in their transition and fast break game.
The main matchup during this game will be the battle between Jokic and Sengun in the post as both big men are the main catalysts for their teams. Jokic has the upper hand here, averaging 26.0 PPG, 12.6 RPG, and 8.3 APG against Sengun in his career. Sengun is averaging 16.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 5.1 APG in 11 games against Jokic, a good mark that he'll still need to improve if they want the win. Kevin Durant is the great equalizer here and can tip the scales in the Rockets' favor if he's able to have a solid scoring night.
Rockets vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick
This should be another fun meeting between these two teams as the first game was decided by just three points in a Nuggets' road win. The Nuggets have out-performed themselves on the road this season, so it'll be interesting to see if they're even stronger at home following their recent trip.
The Nuggets have owned this recent matchup and Nikola Jokic has particularly seen success when matching up against Alperen Sengun. Expect Jokic to exploit the matchup even further during this game, becoming aggressive in the paint and looking to consistently draw fouls against Smith Jr. and Sengun.
I expect the Rockets to lead throughout the majority of this game thanks to their sustained scoring through Kevin Durant. While the Denver Nuggets are 16-8 in first quarters, the Rockets are one of the better second-half teams in the NBA. Still, I think Denver's depth and patience on the offensive end of the floor should be enough to get the job done, so let's roll with the home betting favorites to win by a small margin.
Final Rockets-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -1.5 (-102); UNDER 237.5 (-110)
