Subscribe
Follow Us
Fresh off a UFC title challenge, Kai Asakura (21-5) will make his second walk to the Octagon at UFC 319 against divisional mainstay Tim Elliott (20-13-1). It is time to continue our UFC 319 odds series with a Tim Elliott-Kai Asakura prediction and pick.
Asakura, 31, received a rare title challenge in his UFC debut but fell short against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 310. The defeat ended a mini two-fight win streak that he accrued in the Japanese promotion RIZIN.
Elliott, 38, has not fought since December 2023 and will end a 20-month-long layoff when he faces Asakura. Elliott submitted Sumudaerji in that fight on short notice to rebound from his previous loss to Muhammad Mokaev. The veteran is an impressive 5-2 in his last five fights.
Here are the UFC 319 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 319 Odds: Tim Elliott-Kai Asakura Odds
Tim Elliott: +260
Kai Asakura: -325
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Tim Elliott Will Win
Tim Elliott's “awkward” nickname fits him to a tee. He is an unorthodox fighter to deal with wherever the fight goes, often implementing techniques no coach would advise in a gym. He has not had the most successful UFC career, but it is that funky style that often frustrates and confuses opponents who cannot figure him out within 15 minutes.
Elliott's style gets shut down by the best in the world, but he has turned many prospects around late in his career. He is 3-1 against unranked fighters since 2020, with the only loss to current No. 3 contender Brandon Royval. Asakura is slated to enter the fight ranked No. 15, but he has yet to pick up his first win in the Octagon.
Considering how poorly Asakura failed in his debut against Pantoja, Elliott has a clear path to victory on the ground. Asakura is a dangerous striker on the feet, but he had almost no answers to Pantoja's grappling. Elliott averages just under four takedowns per 15 minutes and has endless cardio that could give an inexperienced UFC fighter like Asakura trouble.
Why Kai Asakura Will Win
Elliott has looked good lately, but he is attempting to end a near-two-year-long layoff at 38 years old. That has historically not gone well for fighters in similar situations, particularly against a young and dangerous opponent like Kai Asakura.
Elliott's strange movements make him annoying to deal with on the feet, but his reactions have slowed lately. He leaves more openings than he used to and is not nearly as quick as he once was. Those are both horrible factors to be dealing with against a wild card like Asakura, who came inches away from shocking the world in his UFC debut with a flying knee attempt against Pantoja.
Asakura will be the much more dangerous striker, forcing Elliott to implement his wrestling. Asakura struggled in that department against Pantoja, but is not as bad of a grappler as that fight made it seem. The Japanese fighter entered that fight having never previously been submitted and primarily losing to more technical strikers. The result was a bigger testament to Pantoja's dominance than any potential shortcomings on Asakura's side.
Final Tim Elliott-Kai Asakura Prediction & Pick
With just seven minutes in the UFC cage, there are still a lot of unknowns about Asakura. He looked dangerous on his feet whenever he was allowed to strike, but struggled mightily on the ground. Those optics present bad signs ahead of a matchup with a wrestler like Elliott, but Asakura has historically fared well against grapplers who are not one of the best fighters in the world.
After spending most of his recent career at bantamweight, Asakura's cardio at 125 pounds also remains untested. Defending takedowns and grappling exchanges against a pesky wrestler like Elliott could certainly wear down a big fighter like Asakura. Yet, Asakura has been difficult to take down for any fighter not named Pantoja and will have a significant size and athleticism advantage over Elliott.
Asakura is a dangerous striker, particularly in round one, but Elliott's notoriously durable chin has never been cracked through 20 UFC fights. He has been finished often, but they are all by submission, which Asakura has not done since 2016. The unknowns of Asakura make Elliott an intriguing underdog, but the former RIZIN champion should do enough early to take the fight on the scorecards.
Final Tim Elliott-Kai Asakura Prediction & Pick: Kai Asakura (-325); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-135)
