The finale of UFC 321 is finally here as we bring you our final betting prediction and pick for this Heavyweight title fight. Champion Tom Aspinall of England makes his first title defense against former champ and No. 1-ranked Ciryl Gane of France. Check our UFC odds series for the Aspinall-Gane prediction and pick.
Tom Aspinall (15-3) has gone 8-1 in the UFC since 2020 en route to becoming champion. After his knockout over Sergei Pavlovich to gain the interim belt, he defeated Curtis vis first-round knockout in his first title defense. Now, he'll look to take down a former champion waiting for his redemption. Aspinall stands 6-foot-5 with a 78-inch reach.
Ciryl Gane (13-2) is currently 10-2 inside the UFC since 2019. After his championship loss to Jon Jones in 2023, Gane bounced back with consecutive wins over Serghei Spivac and Alexander Volkov. Retaining his No. 1 ranking, he'll look to regain the title belt once again. Gane stands 6-foot-4 with an 81-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 Odds: Tom Aspinall-Ciryl Gane Odds
Tom Aspinall: -345
Ciryl Gane: +275
Over 1.5 rounds: -125
Under 1.5 rounds: -105
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Why Tom Aspinall Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Curtis Blaydes – TKO (ground strikes, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Tom Aspinall comes into his second heavyweight title defense following a dismantling of Curtis Blaydes in the first round. Many thought Curtis Blaydes would pose a serious threat with his world-class wrestling, but Aspinall quickly found the target with a counter jab and finished the fight with his ground-and-pound. On the feet, Aspinall certainly possesses the much higher knockout upside opposite of Gane, which is backed by the total rounds for this fight sitting at just 1.5.
It's worth noting that although Ciryl Gane won his last fight against Alexander Volkov, it was a narrow split decision that saw Volkov gain steam by the end of the fight. Gane is much more willing to engage in a five-round kickboxing match, but Aspinall's aggression and willingness to close the distance clearly combats that. The more Aspinall can pressure Gane throughout this fight, the faster he'll hurt him and chase the finish.
Aspinall also has the superior jiu jitsu and wrestling scrambles in this matchup. He'll welcome any wrestling and will pin his skills against Gane, so don't be surprised if he threatens a level change early. Aspinall will still have to be wary when entering into range as Gane has been known to be a technician with his short counter punches.
Why Ciryl Gane Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Alexander Volkov – S DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Ciryl Gane's last fight was a razor-thin split decision that actually saw Alexander Volkov ahead on strikes 105-48. Despite the margin, Gane was able to mix his wrestling and submission grappling to exploit some of the gaps in Volkov's game. There won't be many gaps to take advantage of against a champion in his prime like Aspinall, but Gane feels as though he can string this fight along to another close decision.
With six knockout wins, Gane isn't as much a one-punch knockout artist as he is a striking technician. He's able to land several combinations cleanly and in succession, eventually overwhelming his opponents and putting them away. His striking accuracy (61%) will be his biggest strength during this fight and he'll have to remain calm under pressure once Aspinall starts swinging for the fences. Per usual, finesse and precision will be the name of the game for Ciryl Gane.
Given the willingness to wrestle during his last fight, it's clear Gane is preparing for the ground game ahead of this championship bout. He's great at getting back to his feet, but it'll be interesting to see if he's able to remain mistake-free with Aspinall chasing submissions.
Final Tom Aspinall-Ciryl Gane Prediction & Pick
This stylistic matchup is certainly a great one, but there's no doubt that champion Tom Aspinall has the clear edge in this fight. He's much more aggressive than Gane in closing the distance and we've seen devastating results when he's been able to land cleanly on his last few opponents. His experience on the ground and ability to find submissions will also be a massive threat throughout this fight.
However, Ciryl Gane has been in this position before and he always seems to add new wrinkles to his game, fully rounding out his skill set. His reach advantage could come into play if he decides to fight behind a straight jab. The biggest key for Gane will be catching Aspinall on the entries and any time he tries to quickly close the distance.
Both fighters are also active with their kicking game, so don't be surprised if we see them get creative with high kick attempts. The low leg kick has been a theme for both sides in the past, so it'll be interesting to see who's able to implement the technique first.
For our final prediction, however, we have to roll with Tom Aspinall to get the win. He has more tools to win the fight and I expect him to have his best showing as a champion here. Still, expect Ciryl Gane to hang in the for some time as he makes this a close fight early on.
Final Tom Aspinall-Ciryl Gane Prediction & Pick: Tom Aspinall (-345): OVER 1.5 Rounds (-125)
