The UFC Fight Night Prelims continue to roll from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil as we turn our attention towards this next bout in the Heavyweight Division. Dangerous finishers will meet as Brazil's Vitor Petrino takes on Minnesota's Thomas Petersen in a matchup you won't want to miss. Check our UFC odds series for the Petrino-Petersen prediction and pick.
Vitor Petrino (12-2) opened his UFC tenure in 2023 and has gone 5-2 since. The Dana White's Contender Series product started his run at light heavyweight, but made a successful debut at heavyweight with a submission over Austen Lane. Now he'll hope to take out another dangerous opponent as the favorite. Petrino stands 6-foot-2 with a 77.5-inch reach.
Thomas Petersen (10-3) has gone 2-2 since joining the UFC in 2024. After earning a contract on DWCS, Petersen has alternated wins and losses under the world's biggest promotion, most recently beating Don'Tale Mayes via unanimous decision. He'll look for the biggest upset of his tenure thus far. Petersen stands 6-foot-1 with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio Odds: Vitor Petrino-Thomas Petersen Odds
Vitor Petrino: -298
Thomas Petersen: +240
Over 1.5 rounds: -200
Under 1.5 rounds: +154
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Why Vitor Petrino Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Austen Lane – SUB (rear naked choke, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
After making his move to the Heavyweight Division, Vitor Petrino passed his first test with flying colors in notching a quick submission over Austen Lane. Lane, an extremely dangerous striker, had no answers for Petrino's grappling and eventually fell victim to giving his back up and the eventual submission. Petrino retains all of his athletic ability in this new division and the way he moves on the ground could become a problem for many fighters in the weight class.
Petrino is also consistently improving his striking game, which he'll need every bit of against a pressure boxer like Petersen. His takedown defense is a solid 58%, but it's worth noting that Petersen sports a 100% takedown defense rate and has never been threatened on the ground. If Petrino can become the first, he should be able to expose the holes in Petersen's submission defense.
Ultimately, Petrino's best chance to win this fight will be early on via submission. If he chooses to stand and strike with his opponent, he risks gassing out and allowing Petersen to throw combinations on him. The quicker Petrino can get Petersen out of there, the less he'll risk in a close striking bout on the scorecards.
Why Thomas Petersen Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Don'Tale Mayes – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Thomas Petersen looked great in his last appearance against Don'Tale Mayes, out-striking his opponent a whopping 105-13 while landing nine takedowns. Petersen was extremely aggressive with his wrestling and didn't allow Mayes a second to breathe while constantly hitting him with strikes. He may take a different approach against a grappler like Petrino, so don't be surprised if we see a whole new side of Petersen in this fight.
On the feet, Petersen lands on 59% of his significant strikes while defending 57% of the shots coming back his way. His defensive guard on the feet is extremely tight and he's hard to truly hurt from strikes alone. Petrino has the power to hurt anyone, but Petersen can certainly turn the momentum if he's able to gas his opponent out in the later rounds.
Petersen's clearest path to victory in this fight will be waiting for Petrino to shoot and emphatically stuffing the takedowns. Petrino's cardio has been questionable in the past and at this heavyweight division, he risks gassing out even quicker. If Petersen is able to survive to the third round, he should be the more active fighter in terms of the striking exchanges.
Final Vitor Petrino-Thomas Petersen Prediction & Pick
This should be an extremely fun fight between two men willing to scrap. Both fighters have proved their knockout ability while also shining in the wrestling department. Vitor Petrino looks to be one of the better submission artists in the division, while Thomas Petersen is coming in off a nine-takedown performance and has shown an ability to hold his own on the feet as well.
Ultimately, I think Thomas Petersen will do a ton on the feet to frustrate the rhythm of Petrino. Whether or not Petrino can secure the takedowns will ultimately decide this fight – I think he'll be able to secure one and it'll be interesting to see what he's able to do with it after the fact.
We have to roll with Vitor Petrino for our final pick, but don't at all be surprised if Petersen is able to shift momentum in his favor on a number of occasions throughout this fight. We'll side with the total over as we see a likely decision.
Final Vitor Petrino-Thomas Petersen Prediction & Pick: Vitor Petrino (-298); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-200)
