The time has finally come for the crowd to reach a fever-pitch at UFC 304 when they welcome their favorite son back into the cage in the Main Card Lightweight bout. No. 15-ranked Bobby King Green will look to silence the doubters as England's Paddy Pimblett returns home to fight in front of his country. Check out our UFC odds series for our Green-Pimblett prediction and pick.
Bobby King Green (32-15-1) has gone 13-10-1-1 throughout his UFC career since 2013. Since his near-win over Jared Gordon, Green has won three of his last four fights, capped off by a dominant win over Jim Miller at UFC 300. Now, he'll have a long-awaited matchup against a fighter he called for by name on the mic following his last win. Green stands 5'10” with a 71-inch reach.
Paddy Pimblett (21-3) comes into this fight with a perfect 5-0 record in the UFC. Becoming an overnight sensation on an international stage, he's won his last seven consecutive fights with five finishes and two unanimous decisions to show for it. It'll be his first crack at a ranked fighter and he'll look to continue his meteoric rise in front of his home crowd. Pimblett stands 5'10” with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 304 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 304 Odds: Bobby King Green-Paddy Pimblett Odds
Bobby King Green: -115
Paddy Pimblett: -105
Over 2.5 rounds: -170
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Bobby King Green Will Win
King Green comes into this fight off the heels of a big win over Jim Miller at UFC 300. Green was a step ahead of Miller throughout the entire fight with his striking and bounced back well following his loss to Jalin Turner. Green has been calling for this fight for a while now and he's fully confident that he'll expose Pimblett's game with his more pressing fight style. Green is a terrific boxer and does a great job of moving his head within the pocket. On the same token, he's also a showman and will showboat his way into getting caught. Look for Green to waste no time in chasing the finish if it opens up for him.
Bobby King Green will be at a slight disadvantage here when it comes to the grappling, but he's often slept-on as a wrestler and can more than hold his own on the ground. Don't be surprised if he's able to reverse positions on Pimblett and end in advantageous ground-and-pound positions. Furthermore, Green fights behind an extremely impressive 74% takedown defense rate and he'll be very hard to bring down. Expect Green to take the center of the octagon as he looks to trade with his opponent.
Why Paddy Pimblett Will Win
Paddy Pimblett's rise up to this point has been special to watch and we'll finally get to see him tested by one of the most game fighters in the division. It'll also be his first time facing a ranked opponent as we'll see if his skills remain effective against better competition. He'll arguably receive the biggest pop of the night from the crowd and the energy in the building will be palpable. Still, Pimblett will have to keep his cool and avoid making mistakes against a dangerous finisher like Green. Look for the Englishman to be loose on his feet while still maintaining safe distance and defense.
Paddy Pimblett prides himself on an incapability to get knocked out and he'll need every ounce of his chin if he wants to survive against Bobby Green. His boxing is right there with Green's, but he'll have to limit any mental mistakes and lapses in the cage. Pimblett is world-class with his jiu jitsu and coming up through the ranks, notched most of his wins by submission. Even behind Green's wrestling, Pimblett should have an advantage on the ground and if he's able to secure the back, we could see him end another fight early.
Final Bobby King Green-Paddy Pimblett Prediction & Pick
This will be one of the more electric fights on the card and it's been a long time coming for both of these fighters to meet on a collision course. Bobby King Green will be looking to finally test Paddy Pimblett and see if he's got the stuff to break through into the rankings. Pimblett is looking to stay undefeated in the UFC and will be facing his first ranked opponent.
King Green is the slightest favorite here due to his experience and skills with his boxing. Both fighters have a fantastic chin, but we've seen Green be more accurate with his striking and resilient when it comes to fighting in the pocket. Still, Paddy Pimblett has been undeniable up to this point and if he can force the fight to the ground, he could be in a good position to finish with a submission.
This one will be razor-thin throughout, but we have to side with Paddy Pimblett to get this win by the slightest of margins. I believe the moment is too big for him to come up short and given the great training camp he's had in his home of England, I fully expect him to put on a show for three rounds and come away with the tight decision win.
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Final Bobby King Green-Paddy Pimblett Prediction & Pick: Paddy Pimblett (-105)
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