UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington continues on the main card with a fight in the lightweight division between Tony Ferguson and Paddy Pimblett. Ferguson is currently on a six-fight losing streak which is the longest of his career and one of the longest on the current roster meanwhile, Pimblett has now won six in a row, and all four wins inside the octagon when he gets back in there this weekend at UFC 296. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Ferguson-Pimblett prediction and pick.
Tony Ferguson (25-9) has looked like a former shell of himself losing each of his last six fights, most recently getting submitted by Bobby Green in the third round of their UFC 291 matchup. He will be looking to finally right the ship when he takes on Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett this Saturday night at UFC 296.
Paddy Pimblett (20-3) is a surging contender in the lightweight division having won all four of his fights inside the octagon leading up to this matchup. He now will be looking to make it seven wins in a row and five in a row in the UFC when he takes on Tony Ferguson live at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 296 Odds: Tony Ferguson-Paddy Pimblett Odds
Tony Ferguson: +250
Paddy Pimblett: -310
Over 2.5 rounds: +100
Under 2.5 rounds: -130
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Why Tony Ferguson Will Win
Tony Ferguson is on a major decline at this stage of his career. He has now lost six straight fights dating back to May 2020 with his most recent loss coming against Bobby Green who he was choked out by in the third round.
While Ferguson may be on his last legs in terms of his professional career he is still a perilous fight for someone like Paddy Pimblett who still has some major flaws in his game despite having over 20 professional fights. Also, Ferguson has only been fighting the elite of the elite in the lightweight division. If even an ounce of the old Tony Ferguson comes back in this fight he will certainly give Pimblett a much tougher matchup than people may think.
Why Paddy Pimblett Will Win
Paddy Pimblett is a rising star in the UFC's lightweight division. ‘The Baddy' has now won each of his last six fights and all four of his fights inside the octagon. While his last win against Jared Gordon was highly questionable he still undefeated in the UFC nonetheless and this is a win that he needs to prove to everyone that he belongs at the top of the lightweight division.
Pimblett isn't great in one area but he is solid wherever the fight does take place. With how Ferguson seems to be a bit shopworn it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility that Pimblett could starch him on the feet but it looks like the grappling would be the easiest route to victory for him. With four of Pimblett's last six wins coming from dominant finishes on the mat, it looks like that will be his gameplan coming into this fight. As long as Pimblett can make Ferguson work and not let him operate in space on the feet he should make it seven wins in a row and set him up with a ranked opponent for his next fight.
Final Tony Ferguson-Paddy Pimblett Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun scrap between these two lightweight competitors for however long it lasts. Ferguson is on a historically bad run in his last six fights after his career took a nose dive after that beating he took against Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight championship. Meanwhile, Pimblett hasn't faced the division's upper echelon until this weekend when he takes on Ferguson, albeit not the best version of him.
While Ferguson should give Pimblett some trouble early on, in the latter portion of this is when Pimblett should be able to take over as Ferguson wilts like he has in his last two fights. Ultimately, things should be rather closely contested early on in the first round until Pimblett starts to really pour on the pressure in the middle of this fight eventually taking Ferguson down to the mat where he will finish him there via ground and pound until he snatches a neck and gets the submission and notches his fifth win inside the octagon.
Final Tony Ferguson-Paddy Pimblett Prediction & Pick: Paddy Pimblett (-310), Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
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