The US Open concluded last week and compared to prior to the tournament, the ATP rankings look a lot different, especially at the top. Going into New York, defending champion at the time Carlos Alcaraz had a slight 20-point lead at No. 1 over Novak Djokovic. However, with Djokovic going on to win a fourth US Open crown while Alcaraz exited in the semifinals, he not only regained the No. 1 ranking — marking the seventh time the pair have exchanged the top place in 2023 — he also now holds a lead of over 3,000 points on the Spaniard.

With just over two months remaining in the 2023 tennis season, time is running out for Alcaraz if he wants to regain his place at the summit and become the year-end No. 1 for the second year in a row. So with all that said, can Carlos Alcaraz regain his No. 1 ranking from Novak Djokovic before the end of the year? Let's take a look.

What are the current ranking points?

Alcaraz was always going to have a tough time keeping his No. 1 ranking during the North American swing. Given that he was the defending champion at Flushing Meadows and exited in the last four, he actually went on to drop points.

Djokovic, meanwhile, missed every tournament in North America at this stage last year due to his vaccination stance, so he only stood to gain points. Winning the Cincinnati Open final — notably against Alcaraz — helped him along the way as he now has a lead of 3,260 points.

Here are the current ranking points:

1. Novak Djokovic — 11,795 points

2. Carlos Alcaraz — 8,535 points

How many points does Carlos Alcaraz defend until the end of the year?

Following his US Open win last year, Alcaraz would only play a total of three tournaments to end the year. A big reason for that was an abdominal injury which caused him to miss the Davis Cup Finals and ATP Finals.

He exited in the round of 32 at the Astana Open which means he has zero point to defend. He would later exit in the semifinals of the Basel Open and the quarterfinals of the Paris Masters, earning 180 points from both tournaments. So in total, the 20-year-old is only defending 360 points for the remainder of the year.

Alcaraz:

Basel – 180

Paris – 180

How many points does Novak Djokovic defend until the end of the year?

Djokovic was slightly active towards the end of 2022 as he played four tournaments following the end of the US Open. He won the ATP 250 event in Tel Aviv after defeating Marin Cilic in the final. He followed that up with victory in Astana after besting Stefanos Tsitsipas. Djokovic would finish as a runner up to Holger Rune in the Paris Masters final before ending the year with victory in the ATP Finals.

All in all, the Serbian legend defends a total of 1,350 points for the remainder of the  year.

Djokovic:

Tel Aviv – 250

Astana – 500

Paris – 600

How can Carlos Alcaraz earn points?

As one can see, Alcaraz faces a tall task if he is to end another year as the No. 1. However, it's not impossible. Alcaraz will likely return to action at the China Open where 500 points will be up for grabs. The Shanghai Masters take place soon after with 1,000 points up for grabs.

The rest of the year will likely consist of the No. 2 playing in Basel, Paris and then the ATP Finals. Given that he exited earlier than he would have liked in Basel and Paris, Alcaraz could add on to his tally further.

Is Novak Djokovic dropping any points?

Djokovic will be in action for Serbia during the Davis Cup group stage this week. Following that, his coach Goran Ivanisevic revealed he would likely take an extended break and go on to miss the Asian swing. That means the 24-time Grand Slam champion is only expected to play in the Paris Masters before ending the year at the ATP Finals.

It also means he will drop 750 points as a result of missing Tel Aviv and Astana.

Can Carlos Alcaraz overtake Novak Djokovic?

Let's sum things up.

Given that Djokovic is likely to only play two more ATP events in 2023 and drop 750 points prior to them, Alcaraz can see the gap close to 2,510 by default. Assuming the Spaniard wins at the China Open and the Shanghai Masters, he would earn 1,500 points dropping the gap down to 1,010 points.

If Alcaraz also goes on to win in Basel and Paris, he will earn a total of 1,140 points while Djokovic will lose points from not defending his full 1,000 points in the latter. Finally, if Alcaraz wins the ATP Finals, he will earn 1,500 points while Djokovic will lose his 1,500 points from last year.

So can Alcaraz regain his No. 1 ranking? The answer is yes, but it won't be easy whatsoever as he'll have to win a lot of tournaments along the way. The best case scenario is for Alcaraz to cut the lead down to below 1,500 points at the very least before the ATP Finals and then win the season-ending event to end the year as the No. 1 once again.