The Boston Celtics need to start thinking about the Play-In Tournament, but not because they'll be in it. Rather, Boston's first-round opponent in the playoffs will come from the relatively new seeding structure.
Since the C's are in first place in the Eastern Conference and can't fall to anything worse than the No. 2 seed, they'll have to face one of the two teams that make it out of the Play-In Tournament. This isn't uncharted territory for Boston, as last season its first-round matchup was with the Atlanta Hawks, who won their Play-In game and became the No. 7 seed.
The Green Team took care of Atlanta in six games despite some Trae young heroics, but there's no guarantee of another favorable first-round pairing. So, let's dive into a nightmare seeding scenario for the 2024 NBA Playoffs that would see Boston take on a familiar foe.
No. 1 Boston vs. No. 8 Miami
The Celtics boasted a potent team last season, yet they've only gotten better in 2023-24. At 56-14 overall, the C's are on pace to break 60 wins for the first time since 2008-09 season. And the last time Boston won it all was in 2008, when it also had an overall record north of 60 wins.
The Celtics have won 8 straight games at home and are DOMINATING their opponents.
The average margin of victory: 26.9 points 🤯 pic.twitter.com/8emq5ECiXq
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) March 19, 2024
Essentially, the Celtics are a juggernaut. They have a strong starting five with stars like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis. Their other two regular starters, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, have had stellar seasons on both ends of the floor as well. Boston's bench has also been solid throughout the regular season, with forward Sam Hauser and guard Payton Pritchard providing reliable shot-making off the pine.
With all this in mind, what do the Celtics, who have the best net rating in the league, have to fear?
The 2022-23 playoffs should answer that question. The first-place Milwaukee Bucks had an impressive 58-win season while the eighth-seeded Miami Heat struggled to even make it to the postseason. In spite of all that, Miami went on a tear and defeated the heavy favorites in just five games. Not long after that, the Heat beat the Celtics in a tough seven-game series before eventually falling in the NBA Finals to the Denver Nuggets.
Why you can't sleep on Miami
Regardless of regular season record, the Heat are clearly dangerous and built for a potentially grueling series. They have great coaching with Erik Spoelstra at the helm and have loads of playoff experience. Miami stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have proven they can rise to the occasion too, as they've given the Celtics plenty of trouble over the years. Plus, the Heat's role players, like Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin, have shown they can play well above their regular season numbers when they have to.
By just looking at the regular season, Miami doesn't appear overly threatening. After going 44-38 last season, the Heat are currently 38-32 with 12 games to go in their 2023-24 campaign. Barring a significant winning or losing streak, Miami could end up with the exact same record and be in the Play-In Tournament again.
Furthermore, besides Adebayo, Miami had no 2024 All-Stars. Butler, who's known as a playoff performer, is averaging a respectable 21.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game this season. These stats weren't good enough to make him an All-Star, but it's worth remembering what he's capable of on the postseason stage.
During Miami's underdog run to the Finals last June, he posted 26.9 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. The postseason before that, he averaged 27.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists. If anyone can flip a switch when it counts, it's Butler.
"Playoff Jimmy is a real thing… We have to stop disrespecting Jimmy Butler. In my opinion, he’s a top 10 player in the league."
Kendrick Perkins on Butler being ranked No. 12 in ESPN's player rankings đź‘€
(via @ESPNNBA)pic.twitter.com/SFgT9SK2XT
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) October 11, 2023
“Playoff Jimmy” aside, the scariest part about the Heat might be their defense. They have a top-10 defensive rating and allow the fourth-fewest points per game. No matter the shape of their roster, Spoelstra has his guys ready to lock up their opponents and muck the game up with harassing defense.
A Boston-Miami rematch isn't just a possibility, though—it seems fated. The Celtics and Heat have met three times in the last four postseasons and have a well-established rivalry. At present, Miami holds the No. 7 seed and is 12 games ahead of the 11th-seeded Nets and 1.5 games behind the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers.
Boston has an 11-game lead atop the Eastern Conference and even swept the regular season series against Miami, winning all three games. This isn't the same Celtics squad from last year and they have the talent and depth to overcome past postseason shortcomings. Just don't be surprised if the Celtics and Heat somehow square off again in the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
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