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The Cincinnati Reds hope to build on a solid season with the hope of the postseason in their grasp. We're here to share our MLB odds series, make a Reds 2024 over under win total prediction for the 2024 season.
The Reds went 82-80 and finished in third place in the NL Central in 2023. It was a good season, with plenty of opportunities for the future. Now, let's take a look at some of the highlights.
Spencer Steer had a solid campaign, finishing with a batting average of .271 with 23 home runs, 86 RBIs, and 74 runs while also stealing 15 bases. However, the real highlight of the season was Elly De La Cruz, the sensational shortstop who took the majors by storm in his rookie season. De La Cruz finished with a batting average of .235 with 13 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 67 runs through 388 at-bats. Additionally, he also stole 35 bases, including a swipe of three straight bases on one sequence during a game.
Matt McLain is the other phenomenal young player for the Reds. Amazingly, he hit .290 with 16 home runs, 50 RBIs, and 65 runs with 14 stolen bases through 365 at-bats. Jonathan India was solid, batting .244 with 17 home runs, 61 RBIs, and 78 runs while also stealing 14 bases.
The rotation had one pitcher that broke out. Andrew Abbott went 8-6 with a 3.87 ERA through 21 starts. Significantly, he has four pitches that help him get hitters out. Abbott is a fly-ball pitcher that can get even better. Alexis Diaz is one of the best closers in baseball. Remarkably, he converted 92.5 percent of his save opportunities. Diaz also held opposing hitters to .153. His 95-MPH fastball was excellent. Additionally, his slider confused a lot of batters.
The Reds have a new prospect who will be making his debut this season. Noelvi Marte has 20/20 potential. Significantly, he came to the Reds in the trade for Luis Castillo. Marte will likely start at third base. Additionally, the Reds signed Jeimer Candelario from the Chicago Cubs. He hit .251 with 22 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 77 runs in his time with the Cubs and Washington Nationals.
Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 80.5 Wins: -105
Under 80.5 Wins: -115
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Why The Reds Will Win 80.5 Games
The Reds have two of the best young players in the game. Now, it is time for De La Cruz and McClain to take that next step and carry this offense. De La Cruz is an elite athlete. Meanwhile, McClain always finds a spot to put the ball in play. Marte will try and do what De La Cruz ddid last season. Overall, this is a very fast team that keeps pitchers on their toes. TJ Friedl is also a player that gives pitchers fits. Amazingly, he got on base 35 percent of the time last season.
Abbott hopes to emerge as an elite pitcher this season. Meanwhile, Hunter Greene hopes to break out this season. If these two pitchers can hold serve, they will likely pass the game to a bullpen that is capable of being elite. Ultimately, Diaz is a tough pitcher to hit. Emilio Pagan, Ian Gilbert, and Lucas Sims are all solid relievers who may all be setup men for Diaz. First, there is Pagan. He has an 88 MPH cutter that throws hitters off their groove. Then, there is Gilbert. He has a fastball and a sweeping slider that can be deceptive. Lastly, Sims is a pitcher who wins battles with a high-spin slider.
The Reds will win 81 games because they have a fast lineup that will all take the next steps in their development. Additionally, they have two strong starting pitchers and a bullpen that may be elite.
Why The Reds Won't Win 80.5 Games
Greene has potential. Yet, he still went 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA through 22 starts. Sadly, the problem was his control. The rotation, in general, was atrocious. Unfortunately, many of the starters have command issues. Graham Ashcraft was a classic example. Significantly, he went 7-9 with a 4.76 ERA. The Reds need him to get better.
The Reds have a solid lineup. Yet, they have some players who might not be as good. Tyler Stephenson is a mediocre catcher who produced a 49-percent groundball rate. Unfortunately, he hit .243 last season. Will Benson had a vad season. Overall, he cannot hit left-handed hitters, and that prevents him from reaching his 20-20 potential in this lineup.
The Reds won't win 81 games because their starting pitching will struggle. Furthermore, their young talent will not develop.
Final Reds Over/Under Win Total Prediction
The Reds have actually finished over .500 in 3 of 4 seasons. Therefore, despite not being a good team, they still managed to do well. This version of the Reds seems like they have the potential to improve and even win the division. They have arguably the best young talent in the game. Furthermore, their speed gives the game of baseball something we have not seen in a long time in what has become a sport dominated by analytics. While they don't have any real power in the lineup, they still find ways to score. Expect that to continue. Additionally, expect Abbott to evolve and Greene to get better. They don't need all five pitchers to be good with the lineup they have. Overall, the Reds will win over 8o games.
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Final Reds Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 80.5 Wins: -105
