The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks for a National League battle! It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Pirates prediction and pick.
Diamondbacks-Pirates Projected Starters
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Luis Ortiz
Brandon Pfaadt (5-6) with a 3.92 ERA, 115 strikeouts, 1.11 WHIP in 126.1 innings.
Last Start: 6.0 innings, seven hits, five earned runs, zero walks, four K's in the 9-5 win over the Pirates. He will now face the Pirates in back-to-back starts.
2024 Road Splits: (1-4) with a 4.29 ERA, 60 K's, 16 walks, and 31 earned runs.
Luis Ortiz (5-2) with a 2.75 ERA, 63 K's, 1.14 WHIP in 27 appearances and five starts. He recently emerged as a starter for the Pirates. He will also start against Arizona in back-to-back starts.
Last Start: 5.0 innings, five hits, three earned runs, three walks, and four K's in the 4-3 loss to Arizona.
2024 Home Splits: 2.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 27 K's at home.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Pirates Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+122)
Moneyline: -136
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-146)
Moneyline: +116
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 -115)
How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Pirates
Time: 6:40 ET/3:40 PT
TV: MLB.TV, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Dbacks are coming off an impressive sweep over the Washington Nationals. In Game 1 of that series, they stormed back from down 6-0 to win in extra innings, thanks to Corbin Carroll. In Game 2, they won 17-0. That wasn't the Steelers and Cardinals playing each other. In Game 3, Zac Gallen was elite. The Dbacks are ready to make another postseason run but need to get by another solid opponent in Pittsburgh. Arizona won the series against them last weekend.
The Dbacks lineup is hot right now. Ketel Marte leads the squad in just about every offensive category with 121 hits, 74 runs, 46 extra-base hits, 72 RBIs, 217 total bases, batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS, and WAR. Carroll is slowly having a better season as it goes along after a miserable start to the campaign. Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are also mashing right now with over 100 hits on the year.
AZ is fourth in the league in team batting average at .258. They are also third in RBIs at 534 and 5th in hits with 954. They certainly have one of the top offenses in the league.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
Pittsburgh is trending in the right direction. They were buyers at the trade deadline, bringing in outfielder Bryan De La Cruz from the Miami Marlins … who sold off everyone. The Pirates also brought in infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Toronto Blue Jays. Furthermore, they traded away pitcher Martin Perez to the San Diego Padres. Pittsburgh hopes to keep playing well to put them in a position to contend. Entering Friday, they are (55-53) and six games back of the NL Central lead. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games but if they remain over .500, they should be only a few games within a Wild Card spot.
The Pirates' offense is led by another Bryan, as in Bryan Reynolds. Similar to Marte for AZ, he leads the squad in just about everything offensively. He leads with 119 hits, 18 homers, 199 total bases, 61 RBIs, and a .285 batting average. Furthermore, he has a higher OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, WAR, and extra-base hits. Oneil Cruz is tracking also with 17 homers, 54 RBIs, and a .758 OPS.
De La Cruz went 2-4 in his first game with a run scored.
As a team, Pittsburgh is near the bottom in almost all offensive statistics. If their pitching can continue to shine, then the Pirates have a chance to cover this spread at home.
Final Diamondbacks-Pirates Prediction & Pick
Ortiz is pitching very well right now and is trending in the right direction. I think he does enough to keep them in the contest. The Dbacks are hot right now, but the Pirates cover the spread as the home team for Game 1.
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Final Diamondbacks-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pirates +1.5 (-146)
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