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San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has proven that he's one of the most talented wideouts in the league, but will all the target competition on the 49ers cap his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 NFL season?
It's a tricky situation for fantasy players to evaluate, as Aiyuk will have to deal with target monsters Christian McCaffery and Deebo Samuel, as well as one of the game's premier tight ends in George Kittle for a 49ers team that loves to run the ball. Fantasy football is as much about opportunity as it is talent, and there may not be enough pass attempts to go around to keep everyone well-fed.
Still, there's reason for optimism that Aiyuk can produce like a top-24 wide receiver once again after finishing as the WR17 last season on a 78-1,015-8 season.
Brandon Aiyuk's fantasy football outlook and ADP
Brandon Aiyuk is currently coming off draft boards as the 72nd overall pick and WR29, according to FantasyPros. That's a pretty substantial drop from last year's finish, as drafters may be accounting for McCaffery's addition and some possible uncertainty at quarterback with Brock Purdy coming back from injury and a possible quarterback battle brewing.
If we assume Purdy retains the starting job heading into the season, it's worth looking at the target numbers in Purdy's starts when he had every weapon available to him.
49ers targets in five games with Brock Purdy + Deebo Samuel healthy:
Samuel: 34
Brandon Aiyuk: 26
Christian McCaffrey: 26
George Kittle: 21
Jauan Jennings: 15— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 2, 2023
A rough average of five targets a game is far from ideal, but you could reasonably expect the 49ers to open it up more now that they know exactly what they have in Purdy, who went undefeated as a starter last season.
Aiyuk's WR2 fantasy finish was largely dependent on touchdowns, which could be spread around when San Francisco's offense is at full-strength. While getting a piece of such a talented offensive group is almost always a good idea in fantasy, Aiyuk doesn't have the type of deep ball or red zone target rates that would lead you to believe he's a lock to flirt with double-digit touchdowns.
The case for 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk's fantasy football breakout
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Fantasy football breakouts aren't always dependent on the offensive environment. Sometimes a truly talented player just ascends to another level, and the reports out of San Francisco's training camp are that Aiyuk looks better than he ever has before, as Aiyuk himself told 49ers Webzone managing editor David Bonilla.
“I'm about to take off,” Aiyuk said. “That's it. … We all know it's football. Nothing's ever guaranteed, but just getting a better understanding for my life as a person, and then as a football player, kind of putting those things together and then just looking to get better.”
Brandon Aiyuk's teammates have supported that sentiment, as he's been torching defensive backs all training camp. There appears to be a lot of chemistry between Aiyuk and Purdy, which could naturally trim down Samuel's high target rates.
Another important thing to factor into Aiyuk's current cost is that the other 49ers' skill position players all have lengthy injury histories. McCaffery, Kittle, and Samuel have all missed multiple games over the last few years, which could lead to a bigger chunk of the pie for Aiyuk during the season than what's expected as of right now.
Fantasy receivers typically break out around their third or fourth season, and the 25-year-old Aiyuk certainly has the route-running chops and athletic profile to do just that in his fourth year.
But should Brandon Aiyuk be drafted at his current cost?
Aiyuk's 6th/7th round draft capital seems fair, even if he's arguably the most talented receiver taken anywhere near that range. A true WR1 breakout would likely require an injury elsewhere on the roster, especially if there's any touchdown regression, as Aiyuk seems unlikely to eclipse the 114 targets he received last year. Last season, 19 receivers had at least 120 targets, so Aiyuk may lack the volume to reach that point.
All that said, 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk represents a nice mix of floor and ceiling as a WR2 type in the 49ers' offense and should be an easy selection for fantasy football drafters at his current price.
