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Will New York Jets rookie running back Breece Hall be mission-ready for the 2022 NFL season?
Breece Hall of the New York Jets is one of the greatest unknowns in fantasy football. Hall, the first running back chosen in the 2022 NFL Draft, joined a team that has Zach Wilson as a questionable quarterback and Michael Carter as the steady starter. Will the Iowa State product immediately contribute in Year 1? Experts believe that Hall should be a terrific player in this league.
Fans will try to see, of course, if Hall's talent will translate at the NFL level. In that regard, it is hard to predict whether his NCAA skill set will convert to the NFL because he has never taken a professional snap. That said, both film and underlying analytics indicate that he should be a solid NFL RB.
Hall was able to get the ball in almost all situations throughout his time as an NCAA player. He scored in the 94th percentile for burst and had an 81st percentile target share according to PlayerProfiler. Hall has the frame to be a three-down workhorse in the NFL at 5′ 11″ and 217 pounds. Based solely on numbers, Hall's closest player comparison is Jonathan Taylor, which is obviously a positive thing.
Of course, having a strong NCAA resume does not guarantee NFL success. Thankfully, the game film demonstrates that Hall has fantastic potential with abilities that ought to transfer to the professional level. His vision, acceleration, and hands are possibly the finest of any running back in this class. The fact that he was the first running back selected already speaks for itself.
Breece Hall breaks one loose. Hall continues to play great#Jets pic.twitter.com/4eqq4584br
— Optimistic Jets (@OptimisticJets) August 2, 2022
As good as he can be, though, Breece Hall will join an unreliable offense's relatively congested backfield. If that description seems similar to you, it's because Javonte Williams and D'Andre Swift are both in that same situation.
Fourth-round pick Michael Carter in 2021 is Hall's main RB rival. During his first season, Carter showed his NFL readiness, and he won't give up the starting spot right away. Carter is definitely not as excellent as Melvin Gordon was last year based on skill, but he is superior to Adrian Peterson at age 35. We may infer from this that Carter and Hall will divide the workload about equally throughout the 2022 season. The main issue at hand is how much value the New York Jets will be able to generate from these two RBs throughout their campaign.
Breece Hall 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
When coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas selected Breece Hakk with the 36th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, they cited his ability to “take it 80” as a major factor in getting him.
That big-time potential is clear. In addition to his enormous output, Hall also led the FBS with 12 carries of 30 yards or more last season, averaging 48.75 yards thanks to rushes of 53, 70, 75, and 80 yards. His 5.82 yard per carry average placed him in the 77th percentile among collegiate athletes who qualified, but it really pales in comparison to the 99th percentile he achieved in tackle avoidance with 88 evaded tackles during 253 runs, or 34.8 percent.
Hall is a multifaceted prospect when you combine his rushing skills with his receiving skills. That includes an 87.8% catch percentage and 8.4 yards per reception across 41 targets (3.4 per game).
There are caveats for him this coming season, however. Hall's coaches and quarterback, in particular, could prevent him from realizing his potential in 2022.
Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur adhere to the belief that each year, several running backs should be added and utilized. They spent time in San Francisco with Kyle Shanahan, so that kind of mindset is entrenched in them. Saleh even made this statement the day after the Jets signed Hall.
We witnessed the results of this multiple-back strategy last season, when the New York Jets had a running back record four games with 15 or more carries in just six games with 15 or more touches. The Jets will likely spread the wealth, so to speak, when it comes to their RBs. That limits the ceiling for someone like Hall.
Michael Carter and Breece Hall in RB drills #Jets pic.twitter.com/px7iWxIQMv
— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) August 3, 2022
Experts predict that Breece Hall will still be RB1 for the Jets. Still, Carter and maybe another RB will help him shoulder some of the weight when it comes to rushing. Hall has the same injury worries as any other running back, but at least he had four years of high school and three of college without a single injury that was publicly documented. In addition, the Jets may say what they want, but by moving up to choose Hall in Round 2, they sent a clear message that they valued his potential.
This indicates there is reason for hope that the Jets targeted Hall with a clear purpose in mind. Now, if only QB Zach Wilson can find a way to maximize his new weapon this coming season.
