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Despite what felt like, at times, a disappointing debut season with the Arizona Cardinals, Deandre Hopkins still finished as 2020's WR4 in fantasy football (PPR scoring). In one of the league's most talented offenses, led by franchise QB Kyler Murray, Hopkins proved to be the alpha in the receiver room, and provided both several huge games in the box score, as well as several mediocre ones.
Now that Hopkins has had consistent QB play the past few seasons, in Murray and Deshaun Watson, he's one of the safest bets across the league to remain in the top 5 of wide receivers in scoring each year, as his crisp route running, glue hands, and rugged play-style make him a relentless pass catcher who racks up receptions in bunches.
Heading into 2021 with a year under his belt in Kliff Kingsbury's offense, we should only expect Hopkins to improve on his performance from last year. Currently being drafted at pick 15 overall (WR4) in ESPN drafts, is he worth the hefty price tag over a stud RB1? Let's dive into some analysis and find out.
2020 Fantasy Statistics
Hopkins' end of year statistics were stellar once again, as he finished with 1,407 yards on 115 receptions, stemming from a monster 160 targets. He also finished with 6 touchdowns, his lowest total since 2016. While those numbers are stellar, they don't quite tell the whole story of his hot-and-cold 2020.
“Nuk” got off to a blazing start last year, amassing at least 20 fantasy points in his first three games, 4 of his first 5, and 6 of his first 9. But, those three games in which he didn't score 20, he scored 11.1 or less in each of them. Hopkins then got on a cold stretch, scoring 10.1 and 10.5 in Weeks 11 and 12, got hot with three consecutive 19.2+ points in the next three weeks, then finished the campaign with two games of no more than 12.8 points.
Hopkins has been the epitome of consistency, both in health and performance, for the vast majority of his career, so it was a bit odd to see streaky performances from him. Still, for Hopkins to have those slight inconsistencies and still finish second among all receivers in yardage, second in receptions, and fourth in points is a testament to his reliability year-in and year-out.
2021 Fantasy Projections
2021 should see a leap from his already-great 2020, now that Deandre Hopkins will be going into Year 2 with Kyler Murray and a whole offseason and preseason to prepare, unlike the COVID-affected 2020 campaign.
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The Cardinals added former Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Green to the room in 2021, but that likely won't cut into Hopkins' target share much; Green hasn't shown anywhere near the same kind of burst that he once had, and will likely fit into a similar role to that of Larry Fitzgerald's last season. That's really the only major personnel change for Arizona heading into the upcoming year.
Thus, we should expect a return to the levels of production we saw from Hopkins during his time with the Texans. Heck, in 2015, when he had Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden throwing to him, he put up over 1,500 yards and scored 11 touchdowns! Aside from being snubbed an All-Pro appearance that year, Hopkins proved that he was a legitimate contender for the title of best receiver in the league, and has continued to prove that since.
After showing the chemistry with Murray to put up 115 receptions in their first year together without any sort of preseason, expect Hopkins to at least match that total in 2021. And, given his prowess in the red zone, I'd expect him to make a return to double digit touchdowns as well.
Projection for Deandre Hopkins: 160 targets, 120 receptions, 1,450 yards, 10 touchdowns.
Rank at Position
Hopkins is a consensus top-5 receiver in 2021, but where does he place within that group? He seems to be generally agreed upon as the last receiver in the first tier of WR1s, along with Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs, and ahead of D.K. Metcalf and Calvin Ridley.
While the 3 receivers being drafted ahead of Hopkins each outperformed him in 2020, Hopkins is arguably the safest bet to replicate his production from last year out of the group. The only case to take Hopkins over Adams is health, as Hopkins has rarely missed a single game in his entire career, while Adams has missed 6 total over the last two seasons. I'd still take Adams for his monster connection with Aaron Rodgers.
However, there's a legitimate case to be made for Hopkins over Hill and Diggs. Hill has only had one season with 1,400+ yards in his career, and his end-of-season numbers only topped Hopkins last year because of his (likely) unsustainable 15 touchdowns. Diggs' breakout season last year was his first with 1,200+ yards and, while reasonably repeatable, he doesn't offer the same TD upside that Hopkins does. Hopkins has had double digit touchdowns three times in his career, while Diggs has never accomplished the feat.
While you can't go wrong with any of the top tier of receivers, Hopkins is the one who has the best case to be taken at or above his current ADP. Grab Deandre Hopkins, and, at minimum, you won't be disappointed.
