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The Philadelphia Phillies received some bad news on Thursday when it was revealed that superstar outfielder and 2021 National League MVP Bryce Harper has a slight UCL tear in his right elbow. The good news is that Harper can play through the injury as the team's designated hitter, though the bad news is that he won't be able to throw for four weeks. It's a tough decision for the Phillies to have to make, but the reality is that they need his bat in the lineup. Another interesting way to look at the situation is through the lens of a fantasy baseball manager.
Harper, a first-round pick in many fantasy baseball drafts this spring, has largely played to his average draft position, though the injury has caused many managers to panic. The Phillies star, who is expected to be in the lineup on Friday, is set to have a platelet-rich plasma injection in his elbow on Sunday, which will likely keep him out of the lineup for the series finale against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The plan is for Harper to continue to operate as the team's designated hitter, with the hope being that the injury improves. While fantasy baseball managers (likely) don't care about his defense, they surely care if the injury begins to affect his ability to stay in the Phillies' lineup.
That presents many managers with a dilemma. Do they hold onto Harper and hope that his elbow holds up for the remainder of the season? Or do they trade Harper, one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball, for a massive haul while he still has peak value?
The decision is a simple one. Here's how fantasy baseball managers should handle the Bryce Harper injury.
Fantasy Baseball Managers Should Hold Bryce Harper
That's right. Fantasy baseball managers should hold Harper and not trade him. Look, the prospect of informing other fantasy baseball managers that Harper, a consensus first-round pick and a five-category guy in head-to-head formats and Roto leagues, is on the trade block is an enticing one from a team-building perspective.
A simple glance at FantasyPros' trade chart will show just what kind of return managers could get for Harper. The Phillies star can essentially be dealt straight-up for the likes of Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette, Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker, Los Angeles Angels MVP candidate Mike Trout or New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.
Packaged with another player, Harper can be traded for Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr., Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez or Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Those aren't just star players- they're excellent contributors who have clean bills of health, Acuna's recent groin soreness aside.
There's enough risk with Harper's injury to coax some managers into one of these trades. However, it shouldn't be done. Harper, 29, is playing at the same MVP-level as last year.
Here are the Phillies star's ranks in points formats in each of the last three seasons: 10th in 2020, 10th in 2021, and fifth so far in 2022. At the time of print, Harper owns a .276/.328/.553 slash line with 25 runs scored, seven homers, 22 RBI and six stolen bases in 2022.
A quick look under the hood shows that Harper has earned every bit of these excellent numbers, as he ranks in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage, and barrel rate. Basically, the Phillies star is tearing the cover off the ball, just as he did last year.
He bats in the heart of the Phillies' lineup, which ranks third in team OPS as well as sixth in runs scored and home runs. In short, Harper is one of fantasy baseball's best run-producers hitting in a prime spot in one of baseball's best lineups.
There's simply too much benefit to holding onto the Phillies star. His value is that of a top-five hitter in fantasy baseball right now, even with the injury causing panic among managers. Plus, the injury risk is a bit overblown.
Harper has been playing through the elbow discomfort basically all year. If there was genuine concern about his future well-being and health on the field, the Phillies never would have put him in that position.
Fantasy baseball managers need to trust that the Phillies are doing what is best for Harper's health- and then they must do what is best for their own teams, too.
They must hold onto Harper.
