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Will Patrick Mahomes continue to deliver the goods for his fantasy owners this coming season?
Mahomes is undoubtedly one of the biggest stars in the NFL, and that has translated to his fantasy status as well. With the superstar quarterback under center, the Kansas City Chiefs have become the benchmark for NFL offenses.
Since taking over as the Chiefs' starting in 2018, Mahomes has been the highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy football. He had a very strong first season in the NFL (5,369 combined yards with 52 touchdowns). Since then, however, his ranking has slid a bit in four-point scoring formats. In the three seasons after 2018, Mahomes has placed seventh (334.55 – two missed games), fourth (429.80 – 15 starts), and fourth (427.25) respectively. He has had four postseason appearances and a regular-season record of 50-13.
Patrick Mahomes on throws past his first read since 2018:
🎯 91.0 PFF Grade (1st)
🎯 4,498 Passing Yards (1st)
🎯 39 Passing TDs (1st) pic.twitter.com/hYbEgbhVW0— PFF (@PFF) July 27, 2022
Last season, Patrick Mahomes surpassed all of his previous records. That includes completions (436), passing attempts (658), rushing attempts (66), and rushing yards (381). Over his first four games last year, he enjoyed great success, putting up 1,310 combined yards with 15 touchdowns. Mahomes, however, lost his sparkle from Weeks 5-14 with averages of 269 passing yards and 1.4 passing touchdowns over nine starts. The lone exception was Week 10 where he had 406 passing yards and 5 TDs. He recovered his footing in the postseason (404/5, 378/3, 275/3).
Looking ahead, Mahomes faces some uncertainty going into this season after losing Tyreek Hill, his best wide receiver.
Patrick Mahomes 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
As of early June, early National Fantasy Football Championship drafts have had Mahomes taken as the second quarterback. When accounting for his two missing games over the last three seasons, his floor has been a top-five quarterback. One big consideration, however, is Tyreek Hill's absence this season. Hill's move to the Miami Dolphins certainly alters how defenses will approach the Chiefs' passing attack. This potentially makes it simpler to cover Travis Kelce.
Although Patrick Mahomes will be playing without Hill for the first time in his career, the Chiefs recruited enough fresh weapons to allow him to continue producing great numbers. As expected, his value has taken a hit as some fantasy managers are freaking out over the loss of Hill, but again, all is not lost for Mahomes.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is one of those new weapons. The former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver once had the potential to be a WR1 and was a high-volume catch receiver. Mahomes' potency has the potential to revive Smith-Schuster's high trajectory in order to steady the Chiefs' passing yardage and touchdown ceiling. With Smith-Schuster as one of his new targets, experts anticipate that Mahomes will likely have a minimum of 4,800 total yards and 35 touchdowns.
Aside from JuJu Smith-Schuster, other weapons added by the Chiefs include Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce are also still on the roster. As such, the Chiefs don't really have a shortage of offensive talent, though losing Hill is still huge. Nonetheless, for Mahomes, this should still be a fascinating season.
Starting to think Patrick Mahomes is really going to do this in game, the more he keeps practicing it. #Chiefs pic.twitter.com/X9OfXFGHts
— Harold R. Kuntz (@HaroldRKuntz3) July 30, 2022
Remember that he has averaged at least 24.1 Fantasy points a game over the course of four seasons. On the other hand, he has also had two seasons with at least 29.9 points per game. Even without Hill, Mahomes has the potential to be the best fantasy quarterback this year. That makes him a player that all teams should pursue.
Mahomes should once again be selected as a top-three player at his position because we anticipate that he will continue to be an outstanding fantasy quarterback. He is worth picking as early as Round 3 in one-quarterback leagues. Mahomes is a first-round choice in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues as well.
Mahomes' total output will probably suffer as a result of Hill's departure, but it's difficult to imagine the Chiefs quarterback going entirely off the rails this year. He is still certainly among the elite quarterbacks in the league. The Chiefs have also built a solid supporting cast around him.
This coming season, some pundits project a dip in passing yards and touchdowns from Patrick Mahomes. Despite that, he can still finish as the number one quarterback and is still surely one of the top five options. This season, the Chiefs may look very different, but Mahomes will still do what Mahomes does.
