It's a cliche because it's true: guards win in March Madness. The 2023 NCAA Tournament has been no different—it's why Fairleigh Dickinson upset Purdue, why Arkansas shocked Kansas, why Markquis Nowell took over Madison Square Garden. And it's why Florida Atlantic basketball will cap off their shocking Final Four run by becoming one of the most unlikely champion in the sport's history.
Led by Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin, the Owls have guards out the wazoo—nine different players average more than 15 minutes per game for FAU and six different players have scored double digit points in the NCAA Tournament. This depth gives FAU a versatile, elastic quality, able to toggle between different styles and tempos depending on the opponent. Outside of Davis, Martin and Vlad Goldin (their stalwart 7'1 center and their only true big man), everything is fluid—UCONN transfer Jalen Gaffney offers a jolt of playmaking and athleticism; Michael Forrest and Bryan Greenlee are snipers who hoist over 10 threes per 100 possessions each.
Whereas teams have traditionally pared down their March rotations to their most essential parts (UNC made the title game last year with pretty much 4.5 real players), FAU finds strength in numbers. By going nine deep, FAU can sand over some of their imperfections—their relative smallness (only two players taller than 6'4) can be resolved with effort, since players don't have to worry about fatigue or foul trouble. As such, the FAU always holds some sort of upper-hand; they can out-skill grinding teams like Memphis or Tennessee but outgrind more skilled teams like FDU or Kansas State.
FAU aren't so much a Cinderella as much as they are legitimately great basketball team that's been under-appreciated. At 35-3, they have the most wins in Division One and would tie the record for the winningest champ ever if they win their final two games. They spent four weeks in the AP Top 25 poll and rampaged through a sneakily strong Conference USA, which has supplied the CBI champ (Charlotte), both NIT finalists (UAB and North Texas) and a Final Four team (FAU). FAU's advanced metrics are similarly strong, ranking as the 17th best team in the country according to KenPom. Over the last ten games, they've been even better—Bart Torvik's T-Rank pegs them as the seventh best team over that span.
It's this undeniable goodness that separates FAU from other mid-major Final Four gate-crashers like Loyola Chicago in 2018 or VCU in 2011. Whereas most upstarts rely on some stylistic gimmick to overcome a talent deficit. FAU has just been better than their NCAA opponents.
FAU plays simple, unadorned basketball. On offense, they space the floor with their cavalry and sling the ball around the court until they can pinpoint their opponent's weakness. Against Fairleigh Dickinson, Johnell Davis abused the Knights' puny, unassuming guards to the tune of 29 points. In the Sweet 16, they torched Tennessee's swarming defense by yanking the Volunteers out of position with their side-to-side ball movement and then dashing through the resulting open space. Accordingly, FAU is one of the most accurate teams in the country, despite lacking no-doubt future NBA players—they have the country's 25th best effective field goal percentage not because they have any great players, but because they have nine very good ones.
Defensively, FAU's goodness manifests itself in the simple, clearest terms: they force you to miss shots. Although they neither force turnovers (179th ranked defensive turnover percentage) nor block shots (284th block rate), they are defined by their grit and exacting positional discipline, stoutly preventing any leakages, contesting every shot, and cleaning up on the glass.
This is a weird, uneven Final Four, befitting a weird, uneven 2023 NCAA Tournament. These teams are certainly deserving, yet still seem out of place. San Diego State has a halting, caveman offense; UCONN's guards aren't nearly as reliable as their frontcourt; Miami is small and streaky. In this sense, FAU may not necessarily be the best basketball team in the Final Four, but they'll win it because they're the most flawless.
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