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Arsenal looks to stay near the top of the UCL standings as they face Girona. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with a Girona-Arsenal prediction and pick.
Girona comes into the game 1-0-6 in Champions League play. With just three points, they are in 31st place and will be eliminated from the tournament following this game. It has been tough sledding for Girona as of late. After losing their first two games, they defeated Slovan Bratislava 2-0. Since then, they have not managed to score a goal, falling in four straight by a combined score of 7-0.
Meanwhile, Arsenal is 5-1-1 in UCL play, and currently in third place. While they have not secured a spot in the round of 16, they have all but done so. They would need six teams to pass them, and while a loss would allow four teams to move ahead with their own win, six teams can tie Arsenal, but would also have to pass them on goal differential. Arsenal currently has a plus 12 goal differential, and of the six teams with 13 points, the best goal differential is plus six.
Here are the Girona-Arsenal Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Girona-Arsenal Odds
Girona: +460
Arsenal: -170
Draw: +310
Over 2.5 goals: -138
Under 2.5 goals: +114
How to Watch Girona vs. Arsenal
Time: 3:00 PM ET/ 12:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount+
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Why Girona Will Win
Girona has struggled to score in Champions League play, with just goal four goals over seven fixtures, and scoring in just two of seven fixtures overall. This is a team that can score well though. Across all competitions, they have an average of 1.23 goals per game, scoring in 18 of 30 fixtures. Further, they are scoring 1.77 goals per game at home this year.
Girona has just four goals in UCL play, all from four different players. Still, Bryan Gil is not one of them, and he will need to step up in this game. Gil does not have a goal or assist in UCL play, but does have three goals and three assists in La Liga play. Meanwhile, Miguel Gutierrez does have a goal in UCL play, while also having a goal and an assist in La Liga play. Finally, Donny van de Beek has two goals and two assists in La Liga play and has a goal so far in UCL play.
The Girona defense has been solid overall. They have allowed 11 goals in Champions League play, good for just 1.57 per game. They have also been solid at home in UCL play, giving up just four goals over their three home UCL fixtures.
Why Arsenal Will Win
Arsenal is scoring well overall. In 33 fixtures this year, they have scored 70 goals, good for two goals per game. Further, they have scored in 29 of 35 fixtures this year. In UCL play, they are on the same track. They have scored 14 goals over seven fixtures, which is also good for two goals per game. That is slightly lower on the road, with just five goals over three fixtures, good for 1.67 per game.
Arsenal is led by Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka. Havertz has scored four times on an expected 2.6 goals in UCL play. In the Premier League, he has eight goals and two assists. Saka has scored four goals with two assists in UCL play. Further, his goal total is on an expected 1.7. In Premier League play, he has five goals and ten assists this year. Finally, Gabriel Martinelli has six goals in Premier League play but has just one with an assist in UCL play so far.
The Arsenal defense has been dominant overall. They have allowed just 29 goals across their 35 fixtures this year, good for just 0.83 goals per game. Further, they have allowed just two goals in seven games in UCL play. Still, both goals have been scored when Arsenal is on the road, including in their 1-0 loss to Inter.
Final Girona-Arsenal Prediction & Pick
Both teams have very little to play for in this one. Girona has been eliminated, and Arsenal is all but assured a spot in the round of 16. Still, they will want to make sure they have it with all of the UCL games being played at the exact same time to make sure that happens. This means, they just need a draw to secure that fate. Arsenal is unlikely to come away with just a draw here though. The defense will shut down Girona, who has struggled to score. Meanwhile, they have enough scoring options, even if they send out their reserves to start the game, to find one goal. Take Arsenal to win this one.
Final Girona-Arsenal Prediction & Pick: Arsenals M (-170)
