One of the first big dominoes to fall in NFL free agency occurred on Sunday Night when Russell Wilson agreed to terms with the Pittsburgh Steelers on a one-year, $1.2 million contract. With the Denver Broncos eating $85 million in dead cap and owing Wilson $38 million next season, money was not a priority for the quarterback more so than finding the right fit. He believes that the Steelers are that fit.
There are a lot of moving parts to parse out with this move, but it is a move that makes sense for both sides. A deal of this magnitude is one that warrants a grade and extensive analysis.
Steelers' Russell Wilson contract grade: A+
This is no-lose move for the Steelers, starting with the money aspect of this signing. If someone else is paying for Pittsburgh to upgrade at quarterback and they don't have to trade any draft capital, why wouldn't they take that shot?
Wilson's play, on the other hand, hasn't been as valuable as the contract he just signed. In 2022, he completed just 60.5% of his passes, which was by far the worst mark he's posted in his career. He also posted a QBR of 36.9, according to playerprofiler.com, which ranked 27th in the NFL that year. Wilson did at least chuck the ball that year though. He averaged 9.2 air yards per attempt, which ranked fourth in the NFL.
But Sean Payton did not want Wilson to air it out all over the place like that. In 2023, Wilson's air yards per attempt number fell all the way seven, which ranked 28th among quarterbacks. That did boost his completion percentage (66.4%), but it rendered the Broncos' passing attack to deep shots or dump-offs, with the latter getting more love than the former as the season went on.
Wilson is not the perfect quarterback nor what he was in his prime, but he still is an upgrade over what the Steelers currently have at the position. Wilson has ranked 25th among 46 qualified quarterbacks over the last two seasons in EPA plus CPOE composite score. While that mark isn't awesome, Wilson was 13th at the position in that metric a year ago.
His primary competition in Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett, did not score as well in that metric in 2023. He 26th among 30 quarterbacks in EPA plus CPOE composite score among quarterbacks with at least 320 snaps under center last season. Over the last two seasons, Pickett is 32nd among 46 qualified passers.
It's been a rough go of it in Pittsburgh for Pickett the last two seasons. While some rookie growing pains were to be expected, it was also expected for him to make a jump as a sophomore. He did anything but. Pickett's completion percentage dropped from 63% as a rookie to 62% last season. So did Pickett's QBR, true passer rating, and air yards per attempt, among other certain statistics.
And yet despite this pedestrian quarterback play from Pickett, the Steelers still made the playoffs, which is why the Wilson signing gets the A+ grade. They aren't paying him much at all and he provides legitimate competition for Pickett. If Pickett improves from that competition, then Wilson will have done his job. If Pickett doesn't, then Wilson will step into the starting lineup and be an upgrade over what they've had.
There are more positive outs for the Steelers than negative ones with them signing Wilson. It's a pairing that both sides need. It'll be worth watching to see how it truly works out.
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