The fate of the Atlanta Hawks' is virtually sealed with just over a week to go in the 2023-24 NBA regular season. Unfortunately for them, the postseason path they are likely to embark on represents a very difficult one. They are virtually locked into the ninth or tenth seed.
Atlanta, who holds the tenth seed at the moment, is six games ahead of the Brooklyn Nets. But they don't have a realistic path for the eighth seed. The Hawks trail the Bulls by a half-game for the ninth seed and are tied in the loss column, however. Climbing to ninth and hosting an elimination game is a big deal.
No matter what, it looks like the Hawks will have to win two games to make the playoff field. It is an arduous path that is in front of them. This is what that path could look like.
Play-In Game 1: the Chicago Bulls
The Bulls themselves are not a very menacing opponent. They have the tenth-worst net rating in the NBA at -1.8 and are one spot below the Hawks. They play at a staggeringly slow pace (second-slowest in the league) and don't shoot or take many threes. Chicago takes the fifth-fewest shots from deep per game in the league and their percentage on those shots is 20th. There is nothing spectacular about this team.
There is one exception to that rule with this year's Bulls team. They are very good in clutch situations. 25 of Chicago's 36 wins this season have come in ‘clutch' games. They are 25-16 in such games with a +24 net rating. Only the Denver Nuggets are better in those games this season.
A big reason why the Bulls do well in tense moments is DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan is the favorite for the Jerry West Clutch Player of the Year, and for good reason. In those moments extrapolated on a per-36-minute basis, he is averaging 35.2 points on 50.5% shooting. He shows up in those moments frequently, just ask the Indiana Pacers.
The Hawks just beat the Bulls in Chicago on Monday by a final score of 113-101. They can absolutely take them down. But, if the game is close and comes down to the wire, the Bulls have enough guile and moxy to grind out a win and move on. That won't be an easy game.
Play-in Game 2: the Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers taking part in a play-in game did not seem very likely a couple of months ago. Before Joel Embiid got injured on January 30th, Philadelphia had 29 wins and the third-best net rating in the NBA. From that date until Embiid's return yesterday onward, the Sixers were just 11-18 and had a net rating that ranked 22nd in the league in that span. It is safe to say that the reigning league MVP makes a big difference.
The Sixers are closer to title favorites than they are a play-in team with Embiid now back in the picture. They have do still time to climb out of the play-in entirely. They trail the Indiana Pacers by two games for the much coveted sixth seed. The Hawks should very much root for that outcome or for the Sixers to beat the Miami Heat in the 7-8 matchup. Miami is surely no cakewalk either, but Philadelphia has a larger track record of being a great team than the Heat do this season.
Round 1: the Boston Celtics
Suppose the Hawks navigate this maze and make the playoffs. Their reward is the Boston Celtics, who have won 59 games this season and own the NBA's best net rating and point differential. They are a juggernaut and would be resounding favorites over the Hawks.
Now, working in the Hawks' favor is that they play the Celtics tough. They just beat them twice in a week and overcame a 30-point deficit in one of those wins. Atlanta also pushed Boston to six games in the playoffs last year. They wouldn't be a walk in the park for the big bad Celtics.
However, the Celtics should advance. They are a significantly better team than this version of the Hawks without Trae Young. Simply getting to the playoffs would be a nice accomplishment for Atlanta. There would be no shame if they bowed out at this stage if they make it this far.
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