The New York Islanders lost in the first round of the playoffs for the second consecutive season in 2023-24. They would not have made it there without great seasons from depth players like Semyon Varlamov and Kyle Palmieri. Young defenseman Noah Dobson appeared to take a step up throughout the season.
While the Islanders are looking for bounceback performances from some, they should also be on the lookout for regression seasons from these players.
The Islanders need Semyon Varlamov to perform
The New York Islanders have one of the best goaltenders in the league. Ilya Sorokin did not live up to that title in 2023-24 and had his starter role stripped mid-season. Varlamov stepped up and led the team down the stretch and into the playoffs. While it was a disappointing end, they would have been outside of the playoffs without him.
Varlamov is a regression candidate because of his age. He is 36-years-old and entering his 17th NHL season. While he has been more than a serviceable backup in his five seasons on Long Island, it is certainly possible that his best hockey is behind him. Having two goaltenders who can win any game in the regular season is a must for teams on the playoff bubble.
The Islanders will almost certainly be on that bubble again this season. If Varlamov cannot be the guy who can win games down the stretch, they will not be able to make the playoffs. The team must ensure that Varlamov is healthy and capable by the time the season starts.
Noah Dobson must continue his ascension
The Islanders' first-round pick from 2018, Noah Dobson took a massive step forward last season. The 24-year-old finished eighth in the Norris Trophy voting for top defenseman due to his team-high 60 assists. Dobson stepped up his defensive game, posting a career-high plus/minus rating of +12.
Dobson is a regression candidate because he has not put up any other top-ten Norris seasons. While he is just entering his prime and should be stacking career years, defensemen are hard to predict and more pressure will be on Dobson this season. He also has a concerning trend involving penalties. His penalty minutes have increased in each season, topping out at 36 last year.
The Islanders are dealing with the aging of Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech. Both defensemen are in their thirties and locked in long-term. The team must get productive seasons out of Dobson while he is still being paid below market-value. If Dobson does take a step back this season, expect the Islanders to struggle.
The Islanders' offense needs Kyle Palmieri
Throughout the Lou Lamoriello era, offense has been a struggle for the Islanders. Kyle Palmieri was a trade deadline acquisition in 2021 and helped the team reach the semi-final that season. He signed an extension to remain on Long Island for four more years after that season. His 2023-24 campaign was Palmieri's best yet with his second-ever 30-goal season.
Palmieri could regress this upcoming season because of just how great his 2023-24 season was. The team needed him to step up last year as he did not crack 20 goals in his first two full seasons with New York. If he scores over 20 goals, it will be seen as a regression but can still have a positive impact on the Islanders.
With the additions of Anthony Duclair and Maxim Tsyplakov, Palmieri might not need to score 30 goals this season. The Islanders can power out of playoff-bubble territory if all three of those players perform to their best abilities. If Palmieri does regress, it will not be as impactful as Varlamov or Dobson. If he repeats his 2023-24 campaign, the Islanders could finally make another playoff run.
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