In a year where the race for the national championship is as wide open as ever in college basketball, the Kansas Jayhawks are a popular pick to go all the way. Kansas has the second-longest active NCAA Tournament appearance streak at 24 years plus has earned a four-seed or better in 22 straight tournaments.

Both streaks are poised to continue this year but can the Jayhawks return to the Final Four? Head coach Bill Self will be confident in his team, but one notable weakness could hold Kansas back during March Madness.

Bill Self, Kevin McCullar Jr.

Poor three-point shooting

While Kansas teams of the past have often been offensive juggernauts, this year's Jayhawks team is getting it done on the defensive end. Kansas is 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but only 37th in adjusted offensive efficiency. That would be the fourth-worst ranking of the 21-season Bill Self era.

With the addition of seven-foot transfer Hunter Dickinson in the offseason, the Jayhawks quickly became a bruising team. This squad is eighth nationally in shooting percentage at the rim, hitting 68% of its close twos. Dickinson and K.J. Adams are shooting better than 70% at the room on more than 125 attempts this season.

But floor spacing has become an unexpected issue for Kansas that has started to stick out in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks were rolling in the non-conference portion of their schedule, notching wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, and UConn while hitting 38% of their attempts from deep (20th in the country). While their attempt rate was very low, hitting 9-14 threes against UConn is a great recipe for success. In conference games, the team has suddenly gone cold.

Bill Self's team is shooting just 32% from beyond the arc against Big 12 opponents (265th in the country) as every shooter has suddenly gone cold. Dajuan Harris — a career 40% shooter from deep (albeit not as a volume shooter) — is making just 32% of his attempts during the conference slate. Kevin McCullar is also at 32%. Nicolas Timberlake, who made better than 40% of his threes each of the last two years at Towson, is at just 29%. Hunter Dickinson has tried to help but is 5-31 (16%) from deep during Big 12 play.

Of the Jayhawks with at least 10 three-point attempts in conference play, freshman Johnny Furphy (41.4%) is the only player shooting better than 33%. Kansas' shooting has been especially poor away from home. The Jayhawks are shooting just 30.6% from beyond the arc in games not played at Allen Fieldhouse, dropping that mark to 29.5% in conference play. Bill Self's team has tried to minimize the damage by not taking many threes. KU is 327th in 3P rate on the year, with that frequency dropping to 340th against Big 12 opponents.

Looking at Kansas's last five games, the Jayhawks are in the bottom 10 percentile in both attempt rate and accuracy from beyond the arc. This stretch includes an overtime loss to Kansas State and an embarrassing 29-point defeat to Texas Tech in which KU scored a season-low 50 points.

Plenty of teams have reached the Final Four while not shooting three-pointers frequently. The Kansas team that won it all in 2022 was 286th in three-point attempt rate. But that team made up for it by ranking 51st in accuracy from behind the arc.

Poor three-point shooting does not disqualify Kansas from making a Final Four run. But this deficiency significantly decreases the Jayhawks' margin of error and makes them a much easier team to defend in the NCAA Tournament.