The Sacramento Kings have arguably been the biggest feel-good story in the NBA this season. They hadn't made the playoffs or had a winning season since 2005-06, but all of that is changing this season. Currently, the Kings have a record of 43-29, good for third in the Western Conference and first in the Pacific division.
With the team's sudden rise, several Kings players have emerged as stars this season. De'Aaron Fox is cementing himself as one of the NBA's premier scorers, averaging a career-high and team-leading 25.4 points. Domantas Sabonis has been simply incredible, averaging a double-double with 19 points and 12.5 rebounds, on top of 7.3 assists per game. Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, and rookie Keegan Murray are all playing key roles too, each averaging double-digit points.
With their strong record, the Kings should officially clinch a playoff spot in the coming days. With the future looking bright, this could officially mark the start of a new and prosperous era of Kings basketball.
Coming back to the present, what would the Kings' ideal 2023 playoff scenario look like? Let's take a closer look.
Kings' dream seeding scenario and matchup
As previously mentioned, Sacramento currently occupies the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. Their current first-round opponent would be the Golden State Warriors, which is not an ideal matchup by any means.
Although they haven't played since mid-November, the Warriors have taken two out of three contests against the Kings this season. The Warriors may be having a down season by their standards, but they are still the defending champs and have one of the league's best players in Steph Curry. While the Kings, as the higher-seeded team, could capitalize on the Warriors' awful road record this season, it's hard to feel confident taking a young up-and-coming team against an ongoing dynasty.
Clearly, the Warriors aren't a very dream-like matchup for the Kings, but unfortunately, they are the most likely one. These two teams have a 21% chance to meet in the first round, 6% higher than the Kings' next-likeliest matchup. The Western Conference standings are a mess, though, with the fourth and 12th-place teams only being three games apart, so anything can change.
With a five-game lead over the fourth-place Phoenix Suns, it's extremely unlikely the Kings will fall lower than third in the west. However, they do have a chance to move up, being only two games behind the second-place Memphis Grizzlies. Sacramento has a 77% chance to finish third, they also have a solid 21% chance to move up to second. Since this is a dream scenario, we obviously want to give them that higher seed.
Beyond just getting a higher seed, this would also allow the Kings to face a Play-In Tournament team, rather than one that made the playoffs outright. This would give them a slight advantage, as they would have more rest compared to their opponent. It's not much, but every little bit help.
Now that we've decided the Kings ideal seed would be second, who would be their ideal opponent. Looking at the possibilities and stats, one team stands out: the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are currently the eighth seed in west, and have a 12% chance to be the Kings' first-round opponent.
Sacramento has beaten Oklahoma City in all three games this season, including two on the road. The Kings won all these games by less than 10 points, but they won them nonetheless. The Thunder are also a young up-and-coming team like the Kings, so they would both get their first taste of playoff action.
The dangerous part is that the Thunder have been heating up, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. However, the Kings have been the better team all season and should still be the favorite regardless. With a first-round win bolstering the team's confidence, maybe it could lead to a deep playoff run.
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