The Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors has been the most compelling series of the NBA playoffs. Every game has been exciting, and there is little between the two teams, as the 2-2 tie ahead of Game 5 indicates. With the Kings-Warriors odds still close for every game and the series, it may be tempting to bet on the defending champs. However, here are three reasons you must bet on De'Aaron Fox and the Kings to win the series vs. the Warriors.
3. The Kings are a non-call and a missed shot from a commanding 3-1 lead
The Kings would have loved to steal a game on the road in this Kings-Warriors series. When that happens in the NBA playoffs, the team that wins on the road grabs a huge advantage.
In Game 4, the Kings almost pulled that off against the Warriors, losing by a single point after Harrison Barnes missed a wide-open three to win the game late.
After the game, the NBA admitted that referees missed a foul on Draymond Green on De’Aaron Fox that would have sent the 78% free throw shooter to the line with just over 30 seconds left.
All this adds up to the fact that the series would be 3-1 if not for a few tough breaks at the end of the last contest. Game 3 aside, when the Warriors won comfortably by 17, the Kings have been the better team throughout this NBA playoffs matchup.
De’Aaron Fox is dealing with a fractured fingertip on his shooting hand, but he’s been excellent all series. Domantas Sabonis can still play much better, and rookie Keegan Murray is shooting better by the game in this series.
With the Kings-Warriors odd fluctuating for the series, it’s still a good time to bet on the better team — even if they aren’t the more accomplished team — to move on to the next round.
2. The Warriors haven’t proven they can win on the road
The old saying in the NBA is that the series doesn’t start until the home team loses a game. Well, after four games, this series hasn’t even officially started.
Starting with Game 5, Kings-Warriors is now a best-of-three series with two games in Sacramento and one game in San Francisco. That bodes well for the Kings.
Sacramento was just about evenly split at home and on the road this season, and their road record of 25-16, the second-best in the NBA to the Milwaukee Bucks, and slightly better than their solid 23-18 home record.
Golden State hasn’t been nearly as consistent. They were incredible at home this season. Their 33-8 record at the Chase Center was third-best in the NBA behind Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets.
However, on the road, the team was atrocious. They were 11-30 away from their friendly confines, with only the bottom-feeding Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets worse in other teams’ buildings.
After four games, as well as the Warriors, have played in Games 3 and 4, there is no evidence that the team has figured out how to win on the road this season. So, even if Sacramento doesn’t steal one on the road during this Kings-Warriors series in the NBA playoffs, they should still win in seven.
1. You can make more money
The Kings-Warriors odds in this series have gone back and forth throughout. Golden State started the series as a -275 favorite to move on to the next round, but when Sacramento won the first two games, the Kings became -174 favorites.
Now, with the series now deadlocked at two games apiece, the Warriors are once again the favorites to go to Round 2 (-215), and the Kings are +180, according to FanDuel.
To go ahead and state the obvious, if you bet on the Kings to win this NBA playoffs series right now, you’re making more money than you would by betting on the Warriors.
And drilling down further, just a few days ago, it would have cost you winnings to bet on the Kings. Now, because of one point, a missed shot, and an uncalled foul (as mentioned above), you are making extra cash when putting something down on the Kings.
That’s a good deal.
There are several basketball reasons that the Kings are a good bet as discussed here. That said, in sports betting, it’s all about getting value where you can find it. The Warriors haven’t proved they are a significantly better team. They were and now are again the favorites based on their past performance and reputation as a public team. And good sports bettors know they shouldn’t pay for public sentiment.