After Friday night's Game 3 loss in Atlanta, the New York Knicks find them on the tough side of a 2-1 deficit in the opening round of the 2021 Eastern Conference playoffs. Throughout history, teams with a 2-1 series lead go on to advance more than 70% of the time, and only eight teams have bounced back from a 3-1 deficit.

That's a place New York can ill-afford to be, but will most assuredly be there without a couple of adjustments ahead of Knicks-Hawks Game 4 and beyond.

Space the floor for Julius Randle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq0WKgmAmjc

It's absolutely clear that coach Nate McMillan and the Hawks have taken a particular interest in their defense of the NBA's 2021 Most Improved Player in forward Julius Randle, who did nothing but scorch Atlanta in three regular season matchups — all wins for the Knicks.

In those games, Randle was impressive:

  • 28 points, 17 rebounds, nine assists, 11-for-19 shooting in a 113-108 win
  • 44 points, nine rebounds, five assists, 14-for-22 shooting in a 123-112 win
  • 40 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, 11-for-21 shooting in a 137-127 win

Things have gone quite the opposite through three playoff appearances against the Hawks, where Randle is shooting 13-for-54 (24.1%) in 107 minutes. Per ESPN Stats & Information, it's the worst field-goal percentage by any player in the first three games of a postseason in the shot-clock era (minimum 50 attempts), and it's just a clear indication that Randle is mired in a serious slump.

Prior to the start of the series, Randle warned that if the Hawks didn't double-team him in this series: “Good luck.”

“If they put two or three on the ball, whatever it is, I’m going to make the pass,” Knicks star Julius Randle said to New York Daily News reporter Stefan Bondy, just hours before his first postseason game. “Guys are going to knock down shots. And if they don’t [double-team me], good luck.”

Well, the Hawks have been denying Randle clean looks in isolation, and it's working. He's been harassed inside the arc consistently, leading to bad shots. And after shooting better than 40% from the arc in the regular season, he's 6-for-19 from there to start the playoffs. On a personal level, he's not been able to shake loose against man-to-man defense, that's been shifting to double and triple teams inside the arc.

Furthermore, the Knicks as a team shot 50% or better from the field in all three regular-season victories against Atlanta, but have shot no better than 44% in any of these first three games, and are even worse from the arc (21-for-93). Randle's personal struggles are part of it, but his passes aren't being converted into buckets, either. He had 20 assists against the Hawks in three regular-season games, but only has 10 against them so far in these three playoff games.

Simply put, Atlanta has put all its defensive chips in stopping Randle. It's the ultimate respect for an NBA superstar to draw that much attention, but it's coming at the detriment of the No. 4-seeded Knicks, who as a franchise and a fan base are desperate for playoff relevance and success. It nearly cost the Hawks in Friday night's Game 3, when former MVP and savvy veteran Derrick Rose erupted for 30 points, six rebounds and five assists in his first playoff start for New York.

What if Tom Thibodeau, a known defensive-minded coach, instead opts for instant offense in his starting lineup for Game 4 and beyond? Put the Knicks' five-best 3-point shooters on the floor — Randle, RJ Barrett, Derrick Rose, Reggie Bullock and Alec Burks — and see what happens in the first 10-to-12 minutes. It happens to be four of the team's top five in assists, and it's a lineup the Knicks have only rolled out for one game minute in these playoffs (per NBA.com). Certainly the Hawks have size in the post in Clint Capela and John Collins, but a Burks/Bullock/Barrett/Rose/Randle lineup forces Atlanta to stretch completely out on defense, and it complicates the defensive assignments on the pick-and-roll. Randle and Barrett are large enough to set tough screens, which would open up new options for Bullock/Rose/Burks on the drive.

Fouls become an issue? Elfrid Payton and Immanuel Quickley are on the bench, and both can run in rotation with Knicks bigs in Taj Gibson, Nerlens Noel and Obi Toppin.

Whatever the case, Randle needs more space on the floor, and he's got to get free and flowing better if the Knicks want to advance to the next round.

Tweak the defense, particularly on Atlanta's Bogdan Bogdanovic

Knicks Hawks Game 3, Knicks Hawks Game 4, Julius Randle

The New York Knicks finished the 2020-21 campaign as as the league's top PPG defense (105.o) with the fourth-best defensive rating (107.8), the seventh-best defensive rebounding team (35.5), the ninth-best against second-chance points (12.2 ppg) and the second-best fastbreak defense (10.5 ppg). Classic marks from a Thibodeau team.

The Atlanta Hawks, the eighth-best PPG defense in the regular season (110.7), have simply been better on that end of the floor in these first matchups. Their defensive rating is better (104.2 to 105.9), their defensive rebounding has been equalized (36.0 to 36.3), they have a major blocks advantage (8.0 to 2.7 bpg), they're denying the fastbreak (5.0 to 8.7), and they're mostly mitigating points off turnovers (10.7 to 9.3).

Hawks point guard Trae Young is averaging better than 25/10 so far, but he did the same against the Knicks in the regular season. Throwing him all the different looks hasn't really flummoxed the fulminating foe, and he continues to thrive in physical situations.

Where the Knicks need to make the true adjustment is in its defense against 6-6 shooting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic, who's doing nothing but surge so far against the Knicks.

During the regular season against New York, he scored a total of 23 points and went minus-26 while on the floor — not even suiting up for one game.

Now? He's scored 51 points (17.0 ppg) with a plus-33 in more than 100 minutes played and three straight starts. He's shooting 21-for-48 from the floor and 9-for-26 from the arc. He's committed two total turnovers and is also averaging 6.0 rpg, which is well above his 3.6 rpg average from the regular slate. And, simply put, he's been a pest in the playoffs.

Lined out by FiveThirtyEight's Jared Dubin, Bogdanovic — who was very nearly a Milwaukee Buck this past off-season (yeesh!) — has turned it around after a slow start to the year. And if the Knicks don't turn their attention to him soon, they might be headed to the off-season looking for their own upgrades.