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Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic has continued to prove himself one of the best players in the NBA during the 2020-21 season.
Doncic is averaging 27.3 points, 9.4 assists and 9.0 rebounds. He ranks second in the league in usage rate behind Washington Wizards shooting guard Bradley Beal, and trails just Denver Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic in terms of value over replacement player (VORP).
But whereas Doncic's seismic leap in Year 2 led to more team success during the 2019-20 season, his production has not resulted in winning this time around.
The Mavs are 8-13 following Monday night's loss to the Phoenix Suns. They are 13th in the Western Conference and struggling for answers.
One of the reasons for Dallas' struggles is poor 3-point shooting. The Mavs rank 14th in the NBA in 3-pointers attempted, but dead-last in 3-point percentage. Just one season after being a historically great offense, the Mavs are having a hard time being efficient.
Doncic's own shooting struggles have been a major detriment in this regard.
Why the heavy volume still?
On the one hand, Luka Doncic has actually been slightly more efficient this season than he was during his superlative 2019-20 campaign.
The 21-year-old is shooting 46.4 percent from the field, including over 55 percent on all 2-pointers. Doncic is also averaging fewer turnovers (3.9 per game, down from 4.3) in more minutes per contest.
But Doncic's perimeter efficiency has seen a decline. He is making just 29.3 percent of his 3s on 7.0 attempts per game. Why is Luka intent on still shooting so many 3s?
Sure, Doncic can create space with his step-back jumper, and his ability to keep defenses honest from the outside opens up driving lanes. Only, that jumper is not keeping anyone honest this year.
It seems like Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle is going to have to find a way to get Doncic in the post more. Over 45 percent of his points are already coming in the paint, but Dallas needs to let Doncic make plays on the block, perhaps by taking him off the ball and letting him play more in rotations also including Jalen Brunson.
Another remedy could be more Maxi Kleber. The German big man is shooting 45.7 percent from deep this year but is also playing fewer minutes than last season.
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Involving Doncic in more pick-and-pop actions might force defenses to make choices about giving Doncic space to drive or leaving Kleber on the arc. Even then, however, defenders could well just go under screens and let Luka fire from deep.
Lineup questions
The Mavs have made a concerted effort to use Kristaps Porzingis in the post more. But doing so has eradicated some spacing, which is hardly beneficial considering some of the other starting personnel.
Luka Doncic is far from the only guy struggling to connect from deep. Porzingis himself is shooting just over 30 percent, and Josh Richardson is shooting 28.6 percent. Dorian Finney-Smith looked like an undersized stretch-big last season but is shooting just over 32 percent this season.
The tendency to use Porzingis in the post keeps a defender inside already, and opponents can collapse without having to worry much about shooters other than Tim Hardaway Jr.
How are the Mavs going to remedy this going forward? It would help if Doncic started converting usage rate into something more productive than a 3-point shot. But Carlisle needs to play Doncic alongside better personnel to achieve those results.
Dallas had so much success last season because it could surround Doncic with secondary ball-handlers like Seth Curry—who could be a playmaker and sharpshooter while also moving without the ball—and stretch bigs like Porzingis and Kleber.
Jalen Brunson and Trey Burke could be useful in Curry's role, but there is plenty of crowding in the backcourt. Kleber should get more minutes, but there are also considerations for the playing time of guys like Willie Cauley-Stein and James Johnson.
There are a lot of personnel questions for the Mavs, more so because so many guys hit the shelf due to health and safety protocols. But for now, the clearest path towards more offensive success might be surrounding Doncic with more reliable floor-spacers and getting him more involved in the post and screening actions.
