The Miami Marlins are looking to build on what they did last season. We're here to share our MLB odds series, make a Marlins over under regular-season win total prediction, and pick for the 2024 season.
The Marlins finished 84-78 last season, which was good enough for third place in the NL East. It marked a great improvement over the previous season. More importantly, it was the second consecutive season they improved. There were some highlights that helped them get here.
Luis Arraez was the leading hitter in the NL, batting .354 with 10 home runs, 69 RBIs, and 71 runs while also swiping 32 bags. Ultimately, he had a career season and will look to do more this year. Jake Burger hit .250 with 34 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 71 runs in combined time with the Chicago White Sox and Marlins. Meanwhile, Josh Bell batted .247 with 22 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 52 runs in combined time with the Cleveland Guardians and Marlins.
Bryan De La Cruz finished with a batting average of .257 with 19 home runs, 78 RBIs, and 60 runs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit .250 with 19 home runs, 51 RBIs, and 50 runs, with 22 stolen bases over 352 at-bats.
But the pitching staff was the main reason the Marlins overexceeded. Eury Perez went 5-6 with a 3.15 ERA over 19 starts. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo went 10-10 with a 3.58 ERA over 32 starts. It was not a good year for Sandy Alcantara, who went 7-12 with a 4.14 ERA over 28 starts. He suffered a UCL sprain and will miss the 2024 campaign after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
The Marlins did not make many moves in the offseason. Significantly, they traded for Christian Bethancourt, who should be very solid off the bench. But the Marlins lost Johnny Cueto, Yuli Guriel, Jorge Soler, and Joey Wendle to free agency. Now, they will get another hot prospect. Nick Fortes gets his shot at catcher. He does not strike out much. Furthermore, he has a good hard-hit rate.
Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 77.5 Wins: -115
Under 77.5 Wins: -105
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Why Marlins Will Win 77.5 Games
Perez is an ace in waiting. Ultimately, he has the potential to win 15 games this season. Luzardo is also exceptional. Therefore, look for him to take some steps forward. Braxton Garrett was a good third pitcher after going 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA over 30 starts. Meanwhile, Edward Cabrera went 7-7 with a 4.24 ERA through 20 starts. There is a lot of potential for him to do even better this season. The starters were third in the NL in team ERA. The closer Tanner Scott has a 97 MPH fastball that can get past any hitter. Moreover, he has a deceptive slider that is tough to hit.
The offense was not great. Yet, there are some highlights. Arraez is elite as he comes into this season with a career .326 batting average. Now, the goal is to replicate what he did last season and come back even better this season. Burger and Bell can both hit home runs. Thus, it will be interesting to see what they can both do this season. Chisholm has 30/30 potential. However, he needs to stay healthy.
The Marlins will win 78 games because they have one of the best rotations in the majors. Additionally, they have one of the best leadoff hitters in the game, along with two power hitters who can crank the ball.
Why Marlins Won't Win 77.5 Games
Chisholm cannot stay healthy. Unfortunately, it was the recurring theme last season. The Marlins were also last in runs in the NL. Despite ranking second in the NL in batting average, the Marlins just could not drive runners home. While they do have some great hitters, the rest of their lineup is anemic. It will be tough to score anything if the lineup remains stagnant.
Perez also has trouble staying healthy. Thus, it will be critical for him to stay healthy. The rotation is solid. However, the bullpen is not the greatest. They ranked 10th in the NL last season with a 4.37 ERA. It did not help that their fielding was bad. Sadly, they ranked second-to-last in fielding percentage. The defense has to get better behind this pitching staff to help the Marlins thrive.
The Marlins won't win 78 games because they have a stagnant lineup that cannot stay healthy. Also, their defense is still bad and will cost them many games.
Final Marlins Over/Under Win Total Prediction
The Marlins still play against their division, which includes the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. Hence, it will be tough to navigate against them. But the Marlins also will fare better against the New York Mets and Washington Nationals. Also, they will have easier games against other teams. The Marlins have road games against the Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics, and Kansas City Royals. If they can win all those series, it will help their credentials even further. The Marlins have a great pitching staff with so much potential. Look for the Marlins to win 86 games if they can stay healthy.
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Final Marlins Over/Under Win Total Prediction:
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