The St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros seemed poised to finalize a blockbuster trade involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, but the deal hit a snag when Arenado opted not to waive his full no-trade clause — at least for now. Despite the Astros’ aggressive pursuit, Arenado’s hesitation has left both teams in limbo.

Discussions between the two clubs reportedly reached advanced stages during the Winter Meetings, and both sides were optimistic that an agreement was imminent. The Astros were prepared to absorb a significant portion of Arenado’s remaining salary, while the Cardinals were only responsible for about $5 million annually. However, Arenado’s reluctance to commit to Houston, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the third-base market, brought negotiations to a halt.

Arenado’s decision to hold off stemmed from his desire to see how the market for third basemen, particularly free agent Alex Bregman, would unfold, via Katie Woo of The Athletic. Arenado reportedly wanted more clarity about Houston’s long-term direction, particularly after the Astros traded outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs.

The Cardinals will continue to seek a trade for Nolan Arenado this offseason

St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) throws on the run against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the eighth inning at Busch Stadium.
Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged the complexities of moving Arenado, who holds a full no-trade clause. “These decisions are not something we ever take lightly,” Mozeliak said earlier this month. “(Arenado) is not demanding a trade. He’s not telling me I have to do it, but I think in the best interest of both sides, I’d like to try to find him someplace to land.”

The Cardinals are under mounting financial pressure, with declining television revenue and ticket sales prompting ownership to push for payroll reductions. Moving Arenado, who is owed over $60 million in present-day value including deferred salary, would provide significant financial relief. The Astros’ willingness to take on nearly $45 million of that burden made them an ideal trade partner for St. Louis.

Still, Arenado’s reservations complicate the Cardinals’ offseason plans. Mozeliak indicated the team would continue to explore other trade partners while considering alternative ways to cut payroll. Options could include trading players like Steven Matz or Erick Fedde, both of whom are on expiring deals, though those moves would not provide the same financial impact as dealing Arenado.

For now, both the Cardinals and Arenado agree that a trade remains the best solution, but timing and market dynamics will dictate the next steps. With teams like the Yankees and Red Sox reportedly keeping tabs, the situation remains fluid. However, unless Arenado’s stance changes, the Cardinals may be forced to pivot their strategy.