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The Philadelphia Phillies did not have a ton of expectation entering the 2022 season. The division rival Atlanta Braves had just won the World Series and the New York Mets loaded up in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Phillies biggest move was signing Kyle Schwarber as a free agent from the Boston Red Sox. It was unknown whether Schwarber's finish in Boston was legit or a flash in the pan. It certainly turned out to be the former, as he's continued smashing the baseball this year.
With a little under six weeks remaining in the regular season, the Phillies find themselves in position for a playoff berth. As of this writing, they are a half game ahead of the San Diego Padres for the second of three wild card spots. The only team currently not holding one of those spots that's within reach of Philadelphia is Milwaukee, who is two games back.
It would be quite the accomplishment if the Phillies were able to reach the postseason. That's especially true considering they have been without All-Star Bryce Harper for almost two months with a fractured thumb.
So, let's delve into whether the Phillies can truly content this October.
Are the Phillies 2022 World Series Contenders?
The short answer is no, they are not actually contenders to win the 2022 World Series. They have a solid offense, sitting fifth in the National League with 569 runs scored. And don't forget, half of their games have been without their best player and reigning league MVP.
Harper is on track for a swift return. He made his first rehab start Tuesday night and hit two home runs.
Phillies top prospect Bryce Harper has his second home run of the game here in his Triple-A debut. https://t.co/OIH7p4biej
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) August 24, 2022
When he rejoins the club, the Phillies lineup will consist of Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto. That's pretty formidable. But playoff baseball is less about a lineup and more about a team's pitching.
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Philadelphia does have two legitimate starters atop their rotation. Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola could both be considered the team's ace. They could match up against most opponent and fare pretty well. Wheeler has a 3.07 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an 11-7 record. Meanwhile, Nola has been even more impressive but equally unlucky. He is 8-10 this season, despite a 3.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
But beyond those two, there is no clear third starter. Kyle Gibson has tons of experience and would likely default as the next pitcher in the Phillies rotation. Almost every year of his career he has posted an ERA north of 4.00, including this year. Gibson has only struck out 105 batters in 132 innings this year. So, he's now blowing anyone away.
#Phillies starting rotation will be why they get swept if they make the Playoffs. Do not have one single starter that is consistently reliable. Reading Phillies have a better rotation. Painter or Abel would do better than 6H, 4BB & 99 pitches in less than six innings
— jack b grubman (@GrubmanJB) August 24, 2022
Beyond him, things really fall off the table. Ranger Suarez and Zach Elfin would likely battle for the final playoff rotation spot.
As shaky as the Phillies rotation is, their bullpen is even worse. Cory Knebel began the year as closer but was demoted after struggling mightily. Seranthony Dominguez has been the team's best reliever but was just diagnosed with tricep tendinits. He was placed on the 15-day injured list.
Playoff baseball sees games get tight late. Every pitch matters. You need pitchers you can rely on, especially late in games with a lead. The Phillies have not shown the ability to consistently nail down games this year.
When you look at the elite clubs in the National League (Dodgers, Mets, Braves), they all have incredibly deep rotations with strong bullpens. The Phillies could surprise people and win a series. But they are missing too many pieces to make an extended run to a World Series title.
