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The San Diego Padres enter Tuesday's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 62-51. They are three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in a tight divisional race. Despite San Diego's blockbuster moves at the Major League Baseball trade deadline, their starting rotation remains the biggest issue. Can Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease, and JP Sears get on track before the playoff start?
Heading into the year, Padres manager Mike Shildt's starters were a formidable group. However, San Diego has shown that being without Joe Musgrove has taxed them. After their hot start to begin the season, the team has fallen back down to earth. While a 7-3 stretch over their last 10 games is encouraging, questions about their consistency have not gone away.
Of their starting pitchers, Michael King and Nick Pivetta are the only ones with winning records. If it weren't for the former's dominance, King's injury would have been much more serious for San Diego. A pitching staff needs to be more than just two stars, especially in the postseason. Despite having a lot of playoff experience among them, some of the Padres' starters are shaky.
After losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-2 in last year's NLDS, San Diego entered the offseason on a mission. With a roster as talented as theirs, coming up short in the postseason again and again is unacceptable. To their credit, the Padres have done everything they can do whip themselves into shape. Despite their best efforts, though, there are still holes on the roster.
San Diego's regular season success has given the team the confidence to go all-in for 2025. However, the team might need to re-assess the pitching staff and try to improve it before the playoffs start. Getting King back is a step in the right direction, but the bigger problems lie with Cease, Darvish, and Co..
Strikeouts are great, but success is more than big numbers
Ever since he rose into MLB stardom, Cease has set himself apart when it comes to strikeouts. Even in a down season, the former Chicago White Sox ace is fourth in the league in strikeouts before Tuesday's action. The veteran righty is one of the nastiest pitchers when it comes to getting batters to swing an miss. This season, though, it has been much more feast or famine.
Cease leads the Padres' starters by a lot when it comes to losses. He has ten so far this season, double the second-worst mark on the team. Cease's struggles have been so severe that he was on San Diego's trade block at the trade deadline. The Houston Astros talked to the Padres about Cease's price tag, but it ended up being too high a price for the Astros to pay for the starter.
Cease is fully capable of bouncing back into his peak form. However, he is running out of time to do so before the playoffs begin. For now, Sears will have to pick up the slack and bolster Shildt's rotation for the time being. San Diego also had some interest when it came to making Mason Miller a starter. That is one of the other main reasons Cease was on the market.
Shildt has everything he needs to put forward a dominant playoff platoon. However, the drop-off between King, Pivetta, and the rest of his staff cannot be as big as it is right now. The offense has played well enough to cover up the Padres' shortcomings over their recent stretch. However, consistency is key when it comes to San Diego's chances at winning their first World Series ever.
Father time is creeping up on San Diego, slowly but surely
Shildt and San Diego's front office has done a good job building a team capable of competing with the Dodgers. However, the Padres' roster skews a bit older, especially when it comes to the pitching staff. Of their current starting rotation when healthy, none are younger than 29. Darvish brings up the rear at 38 years old, the oldest compared to the core starters.
Despite how successful he has been during his career, Darvish's age is catching up with him. At this point, Shildt can't hope to rely on him throughout a playoff run. However, he might not have much of a choice. The age of his entire rotation is cause for concern, especially considering the fact that injuries only become more common as players get older. It is something to keep on eye on.
The addition of Sears quells some of those concern. However, the abundance of pitching the team brought in has given Shildt some questions to answer. Shildt told reporters that he is not committing to a plan when it comes to his bullpen. While it is difficult to pick between Miller and Robert Suarez, his starting rotation is not any clearer. What happens if he makes a switch?
That kind of uncertainty can kill a playoff run. At this point in the season, San Diego has invested too much for the team to flame out early in the postseason. Their starting rotation is in the center of the spotlight and will be for the rest of the year. It is up to Shildt's pitching to step up and compliment the offense as the team pursues a title.
