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The San Diego Padres were busy at the MLB Trade Deadline, making multiple trades for the stretch run in an effort to reach the postseason once again. The Padres filled arguably their biggest need in a trade with the Kansas City Royals, acquiring star reliever Scott Barlow in exchange for prospects Henry Williams and Jesus Rios.
Barlow, 30, was one of the best relievers in baseball during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, recording a 2.30 ERA over 148 IP with 40 saves during those two years. But with Barlow struggling this season (5.35 ERA) and walking batters at an unusually high rate, the Padres might have received a discounted price on the talented reliever.
It's important to factor in that Barlow isn't merely a rental. While most deadline moves are for players entering free agency the following offseason, Barlow will be arbitration-eligible next year and won't hit free agency until after the 2024 season. The Padres needed another reliable bullpen arm for the stretch run this year, but Barlow could be even more important next year if Josh Hader leaves in free agency this summer.
Padres GM A.J. Preller played this perfectly, making the Padres a buyer without sacrificing huge amounts of assets. Moving prospects for a few months of a player wasn't the smartest path given San Diego's place in the standings and forthcoming uphill battle. But moving prospects for someone who can help now and solidify the bullpen next year makes the juice worth the squeeze.
Trading a top-10 ranked prospect in Henry Williams to Kansas City isn't easy, though, as the Padres just used a third-round pick on Williams in the 2022 draft. Williams comes attached with a good deal of risk, however, as explained on MLB.com's prospect profile:
“The Tommy John surgery isn’t the only health issue on his docket, however, after arm soreness and a forearm strain popped up in 2020 and 2021 respectively. The elbow reconstruction could go a long way toward putting all of that in his past, and if he can stick on the mound, there’s mid-rotation upside.”
Rios, 21, is a reliever with good velocity, but he hasn't pitched well in the minors or in summer ball over the last year.
Williams may end up panning out, but the window for San Diego to get to the World Series is in the next two seasons, and Scott Barlow should be a very important piece of that puzzle. With Robert Suarez back from injury and pitching well, the Padres should have a potent 7/8/9 combo with Barlow and Hader, with Nick Martinez serving as the long reliever. San Diego was considered to have one of the best bullpens in baseball coming into this season, and Barlow's addition can help make that a reality. The Padres have the league's best team ERA, but the bullpen has blown 20 saves this season — the 7th highest number in baseball.
As arguably the best available reliever on the trade market, Barlow's acquisition cost probably could have been a lot higher, especially since he's controllable for another season. For that reason, Barlow is the perfect type of trade deadline acquisition that won't burn the Padres if the postseason run doesn't come to fruition. Betting on the bigger sample size of Barlow performing like a top reliever is a calculated move for Preller and the Padres, and mitigates some of the risks of Barlow not returning to form this year and being a buyer at the deadline while below the .500 mark in the standings.
By getting Scott Barlow from the Royals in addition to Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi from the Pirates, the Padres made enough substantial moves to be considered one of the biggest winners of the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline.
Trade Grades:
Kansas City: C-
San Diego: A-
