When the Toronto Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease to a monster contract, it left a massive hole in the San Diego Padres' rotation. Now, there could be issues as they head toward Opening Day with many questions about what their rotation will look like. In addition to Cease, Yu Darvish will not pitch this season, leaving another major gap in the rotation.
San Diego has +3000 odds to win the World Series, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Oddsmakers give them the 14th-best odds of claiming the title.
With Darvish and Cease gone, it makes starting pitching depth as the biggest question heading into Opening Day. Here are some of the factors that will come into play.
How Michael King handles the pressure
Suddenly, Michael King is the top starter in rotation. Now, the question is how he will handle the pressure of being the top starter. King went 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 15 starts last season. He also missed a lot of action with shoulder and knee inflammation.
There has been some progess on that aspect, as King has worked bullpen sessions, and looks to be working his way back. But with the Padres losing two of their top guys, they need King more than ever, and he will have to prove that he can stay healthy to lead the rotation. If he cannot, then things could spiral quickly, especially in the same division as the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Where the other starters fit it
Nick Pivetta was quietly solid last season, going 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA over 31 starts. He had 190 strikeouts over 181 2/3 innings while walking just 50 batters. If King falters, Pivetta could take that next step and become the ace of the rotation. But he needs help, too.
Joe Musgrove missed the entire 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024. So far, he is healthy and ready to pitch, but what can he realistically give the Padres. Prior to his injury, Musgrove was one of the best pitchers on the team. In 2023, he went 10-3 with a 3.05 ERA over 17 starts. When he sustained his injury, he was 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA over 19 starts.
Randy Vasquez was also solid, going 6-7 with a 3.84 ERA over 26 starts, and 28 overall games. He stayed injury free, and was one of the reliable arms in the rotation. JP Sears spent time with the Athletics and the Padres, combining to go 9-11 with a 5.04 ERA over 135 2/3 innings. He needs to do better to stay in the rotation.
Potential Options
The Padres could dig into their internal options. Miguel Mendez was in Double-A last season and possesses a mid-to-high 90s fastball that has excellent movement, along with some solid secondary pitches. He is currently competing for a spot at Spring Training. Kash Mayfield had solid numbers at Low-A in 2025. However, he likely will start the season in the minors and could become a call-up later. Jagger Haynes was steady at Double-A, but he might not be ready until mid-season at the earliest.
The Padres are likely hoping that their starting pitchers can hold the fort for now. Ultimately, they are hoping for decent results, and health, as they endure the starting stretch of the season. With the Dodgers winning their second consecutive title, and the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants both getting better, it won't get any easier in the NL West. Their starting pitching depth could come into question, as they try to survive the season with the current brass.
