The San Diego Padres should be at the front of the line for Hunter Greene, even if the odds of Cincinnati actually moving him sit around a meager 10 percent. The combination of need, timing and upside makes this the kind of calculated overpay that can redefine a franchise’s window overnight.
Greene is exactly the type of frontline arm that rarely hits the market, especially at his price point. In an era where Dylan Cease can command 210 million over seven years, locking in four more seasons of Greene at roughly 60 million is a competitive advantage few teams can ever buy. Cincinnati’s situation is what cracks the door open, even slightly. The Reds have stockpiled arms — Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Chase Burns, Brady Singer, Rhett Lowder — to the point where moving the best of the bunch is at least theoretically imaginable.
The Reds do not have to trade Greene, and that is the key dynamic. Any offer must acknowledge the surplus value of an ace-level talent on a below-market deal and still leave Cincinnati feeling like it is not punting its competitive timeline. From San Diego’s standpoint, this is about going from interesting to terrifying in a single move. Pairing Greene with their existing rotation pieces gives the Padres a true postseason engine, the kind of starter who can tilt an October series with sheer velocity and swing-and-miss.
Greene’s fastball averaged 99.4 mph last season, easily the best among starters and one of the most dominant four-seamers on a per-pitch basis in the sport. When a heater misses bats like that at the top of the zone, the entire game plan for opposing lineups shrinks. Just as important, the secondary arsenal is catching up to the headline velocity. Greene’s slider jumped roughly 3 mph in 2025 without sacrificing movement, transforming into a legitimate plus pitch that tunnels off the fastball and gives hitters no good guess at two strikes.
There is still room for growth, and that is what makes him so tantalizing. Fine-tuning splitter command, potentially folding in a fourth pitch, and pushing beyond his current career-high workload of 150⅓ innings all suggest there is another level beyond what is already top-of-the-rotation quality.
Why the Padres must chase a Hunter Greene now
The Padres live in a division where run prevention and swing-and-miss stuff are necessities, not luxuries. With the Dodgers and Giants investing heavily and the Diamondbacks emerging, standing pat with mid-rotation arms simply invites mediocrity.
San Diego has already demonstrated a willingness to be aggressive in trades, especially when it comes to acquiring star-level talent in its prime. Greene fits that exact profile, but his contract situation makes him even more valuable than some recently moved stars who were either rental arms or about to hit free agency.
For the Padres, this is also about anchoring multiple competitive seasons rather than chasing a one-year spike. Four affordable years of a potential top-10 starter gives them the flexibility to allocate dollars elsewhere, rather than paying market rate for a veteran ace in free agency.
The opportunity cost is steep, but their system can withstand it. Concentrating value into a single elite arm is often more impactful than spreading bets across several prospects who may never reach Greene’s ceiling or his certainty.
Leveraging The Market Surplus
The Reds are in a position where they must trade from their strength to address glaring weaknesses in their lineup. Dealing a frontline starter is painful, but it is the only way to acquire the volume of impact bats they require.
San Diego matches up perfectly because their farm system is deep enough to offer quantity without surrendering their absolute top-tier untouchables. This proposal focuses on providing Cincinnati with immediate help and near-ready prospects.
Here is the perfect trade proposal the Padres must offer to bring Hunter Greene to San Diego:
Padres Receive:
- RHP Hunter Greene
Reds Receive:
- C Ethan Salas
- OF Kavares Tears
- LHP Kash Mayfield
- RHP Humberto Cruz
Why This Deal Reshapes Both Franchises
For the Cincinnati Reds, this return addresses the organization's most glaring need for high-ceiling offensive talent while maintaining their pitching depth. The inclusion of the headliner in this package gives them a prospect who is widely considered one of the most gifted young players in professional baseball.
Adding a potential franchise cornerstone behind the plate or at designated hitter would provide the perfect long-term protection for Elly De La Cruz in the lineup. The Reds have struggled to find consistent power production from their outfield spots, and the second piece in this deal offers immediate upside in that department.
By acquiring two premium position players, Cincinnati balances a roster that has become heavily skewed toward run prevention rather than run production. The pitching prospects included in the deal are not mere throw-ins, but legitimate arms that reinforce the system's depth.
For the Padres, parting with such a highly touted catching prospect is a painful but necessary calculation to acquire a cost-controlled ace. With key prospects like Leodalis De Vries no longer in the mix for trade discussions, San Diego has to deal from its remaining top-tier depth to get a deal done.
Pairing Greene with the existing aces in San Diego would give the Padres arguably the most lethal rotation in the National League West. The financial flexibility provided by Greene's contract also allows the team to retain other stars or pursue additional upgrades in free agency.
This trade is undeniably steep, removing the crown jewel of the Padres' farm system and thinning their minor league ranks significantly. Yet, for a team in win-now mode, securing four years of a premier starter like Greene is worth the exorbitant price of admission.
