For the second straight game, the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Toronto Raptors in the Fiserv Forum. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Raptors-Bucks prediction and pick.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 16-12, but they are 13-15 against the spread.
The Raptors stand at 13-15 overall, and they are 12-16 against the spread.
Toronto came out on top in yesterday's matchup, winning by a final score of 124-113.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Raptors-Bucks odds.
NBA Odds: Raptors-Bucks Odds
Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-110)
Toronto Raptors +6.5 (-110)
Over 235.5 Points (-112)
Under 235.5 Points (-108)
Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread
Going solely off trends, the Raptors hold the upper hand in this matchup.
Toronto has been great at covering as slight underdogs. When given four or more points by Vegas, Toronto is 4-0 against the spread.
On the other hand, Milwaukee has been in terrible form, losing all four of their last matchups. They were favorites in three of them.
Numbers-wise, Toronto matches up well with the Bucks' strengths. Milwaukee is used to dominating opponents from the 3-point line, but the Raptors don't lag behind too far in 3-point percentage (0.2 percent difference in the Bucks' favor) and actually lead Milwaukee in 3-point makes per game (15.7 to 15.2 in the Raptors' favor).
Even on the defensive end, the Raptors have done a better job of keeping opponents off the board. Toronto's defense has held opponents to a full point lower per game than the Bucks have.
Milwaukee's defense has struggled of late due to the absence of Jrue Holiday.
Since Holiday was sidelined 10 days ago, the Bucks have failed to hold an opponent to under 110 points in five games. In three out of five of those matchups, opponents shot over 40 percent from deep.
With one of their best perimeter defenders, the Bucks will have their hands full again with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
In the midst of a major slump, Milwaukee badly needs a complete team effort tonight to right the ship against Toronto.
The blame for the slump can not be placed on Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been an absolute monster throughout the losing streak.
In the last five games, the reigning MVP is averaging 32.8 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 5.8 assists. He's doing everything in his power to get the Bucks wins, but getting little help from his supporting cast.
Khris Middleton is averaging only 19.8 points during the streak and shooting 32 percent from the 3-point line. He's failed to top 20 points in three of the five games.
Over the five games, the Bucks have had four 20 point scorers not named Giannis: Middleton (twice), Brook Lopez (once), Pat Connaughton (once) and Bobby Portis (once).
For a roster of Milwaukee's quality, it's nearly impossible for a slump of this magnitude to last this long. The Bucks are due for a breakout.
While they have their offensive struggles, the biggest focus for Milwaukee today will be the defensive end. They cannot afford to play lackadaisical perimeter defense against a sharpshooting Raptors team. Expect the Bucks to expressly focus on driving Toronto off the 3-point line, where their offense becomes significantly less efficient.
The Raptors score a whopping 41.2 percent of their points from the 3-point line, the third-highest in the league. If Milwaukee can drive their guards into the hands of Giannis and Lopez, they have a much better chance of limiting their productivity.
Final Raptors-Bucks Prediction & Pick
Assuming Kyle Lowry plays in the second game of this back-to-back, the Raptors have a good chance of covering this fairly large spread. There is no statistical area where the Bucks have a major advantage over Toronto, and I can't see the Bucks blowing them out of the water judging by their recent performances. On the other hand, I think Milwaukee is due for a bounce back. I'll take the Bucks to win the game, but it should be tightly contested. Milwaukee to win, Toronto to cover.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: MIL 118, TOR 115 (TOR +6.5)