The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos meet again in the playoffs. This time, though, they have far higher stakes in Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round at Empower Field. Buffalo dominated their previous playoff matchup, 31-7, at Highmark Stadium. However, the balance of power has shifted since. Denver has engineered a remarkable turnaround, securing the AFC’s top seed and a first-round bye for the first time in a decade. Winners of 13 of their last 14 games, the Broncos enter the playoffs as one of the league’s hottest teams. That's despite postseason success eluding them since Super Bowl 50.
Buffalo, meanwhile, arrives in Denver riding momentum of its own after a thrilling 27–24 Wild Card win over the Jaguars. Josh Allen was superb under pressure. He completed 28 of 35 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown without an interception. The victory delivered the Bills' first playoff road win since January 1993. It also set the stage for a compelling rematch at altitude.
Bills vs. Broncos betting odds
Bills: +1.5, -120
Broncos: -1.5, +100
Over: 45.5, -110
Under: 45.5, -108
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Bills vs. Broncos key injuries for AFC Divisional Round
Bills: WR Gabe Davis (knee), CB Maxwell Hairston (ankle), LB Terrel Bernard (calf), WR Tyrell Shavers (knee), DE AJ Epenesa (neck), DE Greg Rousseau (back), S Jordan Poyer (back)
Broncos: LB Drew Sanders (ankle), TE Lucas Krull (foot), LB Dre Greenlaw (hamstring), DL John Franklin-Myers (hip
Bills vs. Broncos betting trends
The Bills and Broncos have played each other only seven times from 2011 onwards. The Bills enjoy the head-to-head matchup lead, with five wins and only two defeats over those games. Buffalo last beat Denver in the previous season's Wild Card Round, 31-7. Prior to that, Denver beat Buffalo, 24-22, in Week 10 of the 2023 season. The Bills have also averaged +13.8 more points per game in all those matchups. Entering the AFC Divisional Round, Buffalo has a lot of momentum after beating the higher-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars this past weekend. Meanwhile, the Broncos are rested well. Their last game was a Week 18 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Several betting trends do indicate that this might swing in Denver's favor:
- The Broncos have scored last in each of their last 10 home games against AFC opponents.
- The Broncos have been the first to 10 points in each of their last seven home games against AFC opponents.
- Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in 17 of the Bills' last 19 games against teams on a winning streak.
- The Broncos have won 13 of their last 14 games.
2025 records:
Buffalo, 13-5 straight up, 9-9 ATS; Denver, 14-3 straight up, 7-10 ATS
Over/Under
Buffalo 9-8-1; Denver, 7-10
Keys to Bills vs. Broncos matchup
Broncos:
Contain Josh Allen:
Denver’s top-ranked scoring defense must corral Allen’s dual-threat ability. That means disciplined rush lanes and tight coverage on scrambles. They must force Allen to win from the pocket rather than on extended plays.
Establish the run game:
The Broncos’ best path is controlling tempo. Sustaining drives on the ground keeps Buffalo’s offense sidelined. It also leverages altitude to wear down defenders, particularly late.
Generate turnovers:
With Buffalo’s receiver group not at full strength, Denver’s opportunistic defense will hunt takeaways. Creating short fields has been a hallmark of the Broncos’ surge.
Bills:
Protect Josh Allen:
Denver leads the league with 68 sacks. Buffalo’s line must communicate cleanly and avoid obvious protection breakdowns to keep Allen upright and on schedule.
Win the trench battle:
Buffalo’s top-ranked rushing offense has to find daylight against a stout Denver run defense. Even modest success is vital to maintaining balance and slowing the rush.
Capitalize in the red zone:
Denver has shown recent red-zone vulnerability. Buffalo must finish drives with touchdowns. Field goals likely won’t be enough on the road.
Bills vs. Broncos prediction and pick
This rematch flips last year’s script. Denver’s rest, home-field advantage at altitude, and league-best defense create a narrow but meaningful edge. Buffalo’s experience and Allen’s brilliance keep it tight, but one late turnover swings the outcome.
Final score prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 21
Spread: Broncos -1.5
Over/Under: Under 45.5
